Geoengineering through solar radiation management (SRM) may be the only solution to hold down the rising heat and avoid crossing “tipping points” until carbon dioxide removal (CDR) becomes a more feasible option. CDR is slow and expensive and cannot save us in the short run. However, it’s preferred in the long run. SRM is relatively cheap compared to CDR, but there are still some unknown risks associated with it. Despite its potential, open-air research on SRM is still effectively banned. Well-funded research projects should be undertaken to confirm SRM’s potential and identify any risks, making it available to deploy by the mid-2030s if necessary.
Clutching at Straws on Climate
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently released its final report, which lists all the things that countries could and should be doing to combat climate change. However, it admits that the “aspirational” goal of never letting the global temperature exceed 1.5 C higher than pre-industrial levels will definitely be missed. Even though the IPCC adopted this goal only five years ago, it’s already too late to stop warming short of 1.5 C.
Dr. Oliver Geden, a member of the report’s core writing group, stated that it has always been clear in climate science that it’s not very likely that the global temperature will always stay below 1.5 C. The new buzzword is “overshoot,” as in “Yes, we’re going to overshoot 1.5 C for a while, but don’t despair. We’ll get back down below that level as fast as we can.”
However, this statement seems more like clutching at straws because the political will to combat climate change is not there yet. People are not yet suffering enough to give the issue their full attention. The scientists may pull their punches and sound positive because they have to keep the governments committed, but the governments can’t get too far ahead of public opinion in their own countries.
The report acknowledges that we already have all the technology, wealth, and knowledge we need to cut emissions and stay below 1.5 C, but the political will to implement these solutions is lacking. By the mid-2030s, when we’re in “overshoot,” the political will and sense of urgency will likely be available because wild weather of every sort will be hitting people hard. However, by then, we will have left it so late that we will urgently need technology that delivers results very fast.
In summary, we have all the tools at our disposal to combat climate change, but the political will to implement them is lacking. The IPCC report may be seen as a “survival guide,” but it is clear that the situation is more urgent than ever. We must act fast before it’s too late.
The Future of Climate Change: Geoengineering
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR), or “negative emissions,” is a preferred technology to combat climate change, but it’s slow and expensive. By the time it’s implemented, the amount of CO2 in the air will commit us to breaking through the “never exceed” 1.5 C level by 2030. In the short run, the only solution that could temporarily hold the heat down, avoid crossing “tipping points,” and allow us to continue cutting emissions is geoengineering.
Geoengineering involves “solar radiation management” (SRM), which reflects one or two percent of incoming sunlight to decrease the heat in the atmosphere. While it may seem dangerous and expensive, it’s relatively cheap compared to the cost of CDR. However, any intervention into the Earth System could have undesirable side-effects, and open-air research on SRM is still effectively banned.
While CDR may be a big part of the solution in the long run, it cannot save us in the short run. Therefore, well-funded research projects on SRM should be underway to confirm its potential and identify any risks, making it available to deploy by the mid-2030s if necessary.
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