The world’s population could peak at 8.5 billion people around 2040 before declining significantly by 2100, possibly to as low as 6 billion people, according to a new estimate by the Club of Rome. Researchers have outlined two possible scenarios that could affect the global population’s future. The estimates depend on how many people are lifted out of poverty, with wealth distribution and economic growth being important factors in global population change. The report also underscores the importance of addressing poverty and implementing sustainable population scenarios to avoid the collapse of civilization. Rapid economic development in low-income countries could have a significant impact on fertility rates, and factors such as women’s education and access to contraception were analyzed. The consumption levels of the wealthiest 10 percent of the world’s population threaten to destabilize the planet.
Global Population Could Drop to 6 Billion by 2100
A new estimate by the Club of Rome suggests that the world’s population will peak in the coming decades before declining significantly by 2100, with a possibility of dropping as low as 6 billion people. The current world population is over 8 billion. This would mark the first decline since the Black Death in the mid-14th century.
Researchers have outlined two possible scenarios to predict the future of the global population. Under the “Giant Leap” scenario, significant improvements in economic development, education, and health will see the population peak at 8.5 billion people around 2040 before declining to around 6 billion people by 2100. On the other hand, under the “Too Little Too Late” scenario, the world continues to develop economically at the same rate as in the last 50 years, resulting in a peak population of 8.6 billion in 2050 and a decline to 7 billion by 2100.
The estimates hinge on the ability to lift people out of poverty, which is seen as a vital factor in global population change. Some countries in Asia and Africa are currently experiencing rapid population growth, and how and when this growth tapers off depends on how these countries grapple with economic development. If economic growth is widespread and wealth is distributed fairly, then populations are likely to peak sooner rather than later.
The report comes from the Club of Rome, a collective of intellectuals well-known for their controversial publication “Limits to Growth” in 1972. Using computer models, they speculated that civilization would be threatened with collapse if it continued to undergo exponential economic and population growth with finite resources.
The new estimate, called the Earth4All model, is substantially lower than other population estimates, including those of the United Nations and a Lancet paper published in 2020. The report underscores the importance of addressing poverty and implementing sustainable population scenarios to avoid the collapse of civilization.
Rapid Economic Development Could Lower Fertility Rates
According to Per Espen Stoknes, the project lead for Earth4All and director of the Centre for Sustainability at Norwegian Business School, rapid economic development in low-income countries has a significant impact on fertility rates. As girls gain access to education, and women are economically empowered with better healthcare, fertility rates tend to fall.
Factors such as women’s education and access to contraception were analyzed, along with the disruption of natural resources, food production, and the environment. The report also emphasizes that global well-being is not determined by the number of people on the planet, and overpopulation is not the main issue. The consumption levels of the wealthiest 10 percent of the world’s population threaten to destabilize the planet.
Jorgen Randers, one of the leading modelers for Earth4All and co-author of The Limits to Growth, explained that humanity’s primary issue is luxury carbon and biosphere consumption rather than population growth. The places where population is increasing the fastest have smaller environmental footprints per person than places that reached peak population many years ago.
The report’s full summary can be found in the PDF.
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