“Layoffs Headlines Hide Robust Employment Market: Job Numbers Surpass Pre-Pandemic Levels”
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Victoria Wells: Canadian companies are still planning to hire and retain staff in a tight labor market
A pedestrian walks past a sign advertising hiring in Toronto. Photo by Peter J. Thompson/National Post
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You’ll be forgiven if the endless headlines about corporate layoffs make you a little nervous about sticking with your job, but things may not be as bad as they seem.
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Canadian companies remain eager to hire, with more than half planning to increase headcount by adding permanent positions in the first half of the year, according to the latest research from recruiter Robert Half Canada. That’s an increase from more than six months ago, when 40 percent of managers expected hiring. Of those not adding jobs, 42 percent plan to hire to fill currently unfilled positions. Just six percent say they will stop hiring altogether, and just one percent plan to cut jobs.
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Those numbers align with the Bank of Canada’s most recent Business Outlook survey, which shows nearly half of employers are still planning on hiring in the first few months of the year. However, companies are also cautious and are no longer planning to hire as heavily as in previous quarters.
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Still, a tight labor market is making hiring plans difficult. Job openings remain high, though down from historic highs, and employers continue to say they are struggling to fill them. The lack of a skilled workforce remains the main problem holding back small business growth, according to the latest results from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business’ Business Barometer.
Things aren’t as grim south of the border as the layoff headlines would suggest, either. The latest report from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, released on February 3, surpassed expectations. In the US, 517,000 new jobs were created in January, pushing the unemployment rate down to 3.4 percent, the lowest level since May 1969. Bloomberg economists had expected only 188,000 new jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.6 percent. More companies in the US may have cut jobs in January than in the past two years, but layoffs are at historic lows rather than highs, Bloomberg noted.
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The data hardly paints a picture of a collapsing job market, but no one is quite sure where the market will go from here. “One of the wild cards for the economic outlook in 2023 is what’s going to happen to the labor markets,” said Trevin Stratton, national head and partner, Economic Advisory, at Deloitte Canada, in an interview with the Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn.
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Stratton points out that although recessions have traditionally been associated with job losses, the situation is different this time. Businesses are being forced to offset the expected slowdown in consumer demand with labor shortages. “Employers are currently reluctant to lay off their workers simply because they fear they won’t be able to fill those vacancies once the economy starts to recover,” he says.
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We’ll get an updated picture of what’s going on in the labor market on February 10 when Statistics Canada releases its January Labor Force Survey. In the meantime, if you’re worried about job security, maybe give yourself a break and let go of those fears. When you hold a pink slip in your hand, you know there’s always another job around the corner, especially in this tight job market.
• Email: [email protected] | Twitter: vwells80
This story was first published in the FP Work Newsletter, a curated look at the changing world of work. Sign up to get it in your inbox every Tuesday.
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Source: financialpost.com
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