Game Notes Oilers @ Red Wings: Keep climbing

On December 31, the Oilers were ranked 9th in the Western Conference by 0.553 percentage points. Players and fans were frustrated and worried, but fast-forward to February 7th and suddenly the Oilers are poised to make a run to win the Pacific Division and even contend for first place in the Western Conference.

— On New Year’s Eve, the Oilers ranked 4th in goals/game with 3.58, 19th in goals conceded/game with 3.32, 26th in penalty shootouts with 73%, and 1st in power play with 32 ,1 %. They had been outperformed at 80-75 at 5×5. Her power play kept her in the running. However, as the calendar turns to 2023, all facets of their game are solid.

— They are 8-2-2 in 2023 (5th best point%) and have outperformed teams with 35-22 at 5×5. They are 1st in GF/GP with 4.25, 9th in GA/GP with 2.92, 2nd in PP with 31.6% and 17th in PK with 82.1%. I asked Leon Draisaitl what has changed.

— “The attention to detail and our confidence in the puck,” said Draisaitl. “We play better with the puck, which leads to a lot less time in our zone, which leads to fewer goals conceded, and it all hangs together. We’re playing really good hockey and the break might not have come at the best time for us, but we’re happy to get back on track.” Draisaitl politely said they cut back on the big freebies, which is true, but their entire puck -Management was better.

— The coaching staff’s decision to kit out 11 forwards and 7 D-men also helped. It started the secondary scoring. Every forward has a goal in the new year, and Dave Manson has used his D-pairs a little differently. Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci see a heavy dose of elite competition while Tyson Barrie and Brett Kulak are the second pair and Philip Broberg, Evan Bouchard and Vincent Desharnais have been protected. The three young players excelled in protected minutes, that’s the way it should be. Let them gain confidence by not having to face elite competition too often. It worked. Bruce McCurdy had it good break down here.

— There is justification for concern about the Oilers’ ability to pick up where they left off. They haven’t played a game in 10 days but head coach Jay Woodcroft is confident his group will be ready tonight. “We came out of last break (Christmas) pretty well and that attitude came from our captain (Connor McDavid),” Woodcroft said. “He laid out there that this was an area where he wanted to see improvement and that’s how this team plays from the breaks. I see that as a challenge and a big challenge and I thought we reacted well after the Christmas break and we want to make sure we repeat it.

It was another sign of McDavid’s maturation. His effort on the ice has always been there, but he challenges his team (in a positive way) to get better. He wants to get better and good teams don’t come out of breaks slowly. I expect the Oilers to be focused and play with the same attention to detail that got them into the race for first place in the Pacific before this break.

— It helps that the Oilers play Detroit, Philadelphia, Ottawa, Montreal and Detroit in their first five games after the break. They currently sit 24th, 23rd, 22nd, 26th and 24th. There are no guaranteed wins in the NHL, but a 4-1, 4-0-1 or even 5-0-0 is very plausible when you think about it how the Oilers play. Of these five teams, Philadelphia and Ottawa have been playing best recently, but the Red Wings have also improved defensively.

– Detroit conceded four or more goals in 23 of their first 42 games. They’ve conceded 2-3-2-2-3-2 in their last six games but lost three of them. They don’t score very much. They have scored more than 4 goals in 14 of their 48 games. The Oilers are 15-0 when they score five goals and 24-1 when they score four goals. Detroit is 11-17-4 against the 21 teams battling for a playoff spot. They are 9-2-4 against the other 10 teams from the playoff race.

– Tyson Barrie was the heel the Oilers needed in practice yesterday. He delivered a few hits and trips that triggered some screams and howls during practice. “You know what, sometimes you have to get involved with guys. I took a few penalties today but it’s all for laughs,” smiled Barrie. “We’re going to play for real money tomorrow so it’s nice to get some contact and get on guys a bit. Obviously you’re trying to keep it light and have a few laughs with it.”

It wasn’t malicious, but his moves added a bit to the pace and intensity of the drills.

— After playing a seventh game against Los Angeles in the first round last spring, the Oilers are aware of the importance of home field advantage. Going into the last 32 games is a big motivator. “They want that advantage,” Barrie said. “As you v. As we mentioned LA, it was a hard fought series early on and by the time we got home for Game 7 we had a lot of confidence (after winning Game 6) and the fans were crazy. It’s a difficult environment for another team. We want home ice cream. Our home crowd in the playoffs can be a huge advantage. I hope we can give them more cheering later to make the building even louder.”

Edmonton haven’t been great at home this regular season with 13-11-3, but they played 5-0-2 in January and if that continues in their last 14 home games I expect the decibel levels to rise accordingly becomes.

— McDavid is on course for 150 points and reaching that mark seems less unrealistic, but we shouldn’t underestimate how difficult it is. He would be only the 6th player in NHL history to score 150 goals in a season. Wayne Gretzky has made it nine times (seven with Edmonton), Mario Lemieux has made it four times, while Phil Esposito, Bernie Nicholls and Steve Yzerman have made it once.

If McDavid scores 140 points, he would be the 10th player to join the above five, alongside Jaromir Jagr (149), Pat Lafontaine (148), Mike Bossy (148) and Adam Oates (140). McDavid has a season to last, and considering he’s scoring more points in March and April, his pursuit of 150 with every game played seems more plausible.

— McDavid has points in 29 of his last 30 games. He was on a 17-game streak on December 31, and now he has points in the last 12 games. He has points in 45 of 50 games this season. In a full 82-game season, 2019 was the fewest times he was held back from the goalscoring charts. He finished this with 116 points. He’s on track to remain pointless in just eight games, which would make him pointless in less than 10 games in a single season (not counting shortened seasons) with Gretzky and Lemieux as the only players.

– The crazy thing about McDavid’s season is that he only has 14 assists 5×5. He is currently ranked 81st in the NHL. He is fourth in the Oilers behind Zach Hyman (25), Draisaitl (18) and Darnell Nurse (15). He’s second in the NHL in 5×5 goals with 21, but he’s about to break out with some 5×5 apples. His 5×5 assist totals from 2017-2022 were 42, 41, 40, 29, 37 (56 GP) and 36. It’s crazy to think he could score 150 points and an off year with 5×5s -Assists might have.

The fact that he’s producing so well despite the low assist totals tells me that chasing 150 in the next few seasons is very realistic. Enjoy the ride.

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Source: oilersnation.com