BERLIN (AP) — Asia will consume half of the world’s electricity consumption for the first time by 2025, although Africa continues to consume far less than its share of the world’s population, according to a new forecast released by the International Energy Agency on Wednesday.
Much of Asia’s electricity consumption will come from China, a country of 1.4 billion people whose share of global consumption will rise from a quarter in 2015 to a third by mid-decade, the Paris-based panel said.
“China will consume more electricity than the European Union, the United States and India combined,” said Keisuke Sadamori, director of energy markets and security at the IEA.
In contrast, Africa — home to nearly a fifth of the world’s nearly 8 billion people — will account for just 3% of global electricity consumption in 2025.
“This and the rapidly growing population mean that there is still a massive need for increased electrification in Africa,” said Sadamori.
The IEA’s annual report predicts that nuclear power and renewables such as wind and solar will account for much of the growth in global electricity supply over the next three years. This will prevent a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector, it said.
Scientists say all sources of emissions must be drastically reduced as soon as possible to prevent average global temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. This target, set in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, appears increasingly in doubt as temperatures have already risen by more than 1.1°C since the reference period.
One hope of reaching the goal is a wholesale shift away from fossil fuels like coal, gas, and oil to low-carbon energy sources. But while some regions are reducing their use of coal and gas to generate electricity, consumption is increasing in others, the IEA says.
The 134-page report also warned that electricity demand and supply are becoming increasingly weather-dependent, an issue policymakers should address.
“In addition to the drought in Europe, there were heatwaves in India (last year),” Sadamori said. “Similarly, central and eastern China have been hit by heatwaves and drought. The United States also experienced severe winter storms in December and so on. These events put a massive strain on the energy systems of these regions.”
“As the clean energy transition gains momentum, the impact of weather events on electricity demand will increase due to increasing heating electrification, while the share of weather-sensitive renewable energy in the generation mix will continue to grow,” the IEA said. “In such a world, it will be crucial to increase the flexibility of energy systems while ensuring security of supply and grid resilience.”
Frank Jordans, The Associated Press
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