Ronnie Bell, the top receiver in Michigan football for three of the last four seasons, is making the move to the NFL. Andrel Anthony, who was never able to build on his big game against the Spartans in 2021, now plays for Oklahoma.
On the other hand, Cornelius Johnson has decided to return to Ann Arbor for another season. Johnson was Michigan’s leading receiver during the 2021 season when Ronnie Bell was out through injury, and he led Michigan in touchdowns in 2022.
The 2023 offseason will not feature quarterback competition and JJ McCarthy will have his first full offseason as a starter. He’ll again have a deep and talented room of wide receivers to work with. Another heaven is the paper limit season for Michigan wide receivers.
1. Who will replace Ronnie Bell?
What Ronnie Bell does well is opening up and especially tuning in to McCarthy when he’s out of the bag. If there’s going to be a receiver with a significant aim advantage, he needs to find the holes in defenses when JJ is on the run.
The answer to who will replace Ronnie is difficult. Johnson led the team in reception with Bell in 2021, but he didn’t convert a large chunk of goals. His contested catch rate was 35.3% in 2021 and 42.9% in 2022, so his larger physique seems to give him an advantage there.
Roman Wilson seems the obvious choice. More similar in size and style, and Wilson can line up outside or inside the slot. Wilson just didn’t have the targets for us to make the data-based argument that he can be a Bell-like WR1. He hit 67.6% of his goals last season, but he’s struggled at times to pull a break consistently. I think the answer might be a combination of Johnson and Wilson, but I also think the answer might lie in the next question.
2. Who is the primary slot recipient?
Roman Wilson, who had been the Z-receiver without Bell in 2021, played almost exclusively in the slot in 2022. 90% of his snaps were in the slot and the majority of his offsite replays came later in the season.
Roman Wilson’s move to Z makes a lot of sense. Michigan rotates players frequently, and receivers line up in multiple places on the field, but there tends to be a clear WR1 and WR2, with Michigan not having many 11 staffers compared to other sets. So with Wilson out again, he and Johnson are the top 2.
Michigan has options for a primary slot receiver if Wilson actually moves to the Z. The first name to pop out is AJ Henning. Hard to believe that Henning is already starting his senior season in Ann Arbor. Henning was a 4-star Rivals Top 100 recruit in the 2020 class. Henning’s use in Michigan was somewhat bizarre. In a limited role as a sophomore, Henning caught 10 passes for 79 yards. He also had 9 rushes for 162 yards, 18 yards per carry, and 2 touchdowns. Henning was also electric as a return-man, including a kick-return touchdown.
The potential game changer here is Tyler Morris. Morris was part of Michigan’s “Freak Show” wide receiver class in 2022. Towards the end of the 2022 season, he saw 5 goals and converted 3 for receptions. 2 of the catches came as first downs, including a hard fought goal against Rutgers. Morris slotted 89.5% of his snaps, behind only Roman Wilson. Morris is a track star and can affect play from the slot in many of the same ways Wilson and Henning did with End Around and Screens.
3. Who is WR3?
We can learn a lot about this question from the first two. The role of Roman Wilson is really the most important question. If he moves outside, it’s fair to think the WR3 will likely be Henning or Morris in the slot. If Wilson stays in the slot, the name with breakout potential is last season’s spring training star Darrius Clemons.
Clemons is 6’3″ 214lbs and has posted 40-yard dash times under 4.4. He’s incredibly smooth for a taller receiver and adapts well to elevated passes. He’s got flash and hand skills and looks like the kind of receiver that can win controversial goals I would argue that no receiver in Michigan currently has a higher cap than Clemons You have to block in the game to play receiver for the Wolverines and assuming Clemons can prove that he can do this consistently, he becomes part of Michigan’s “Top 5” recipients.
It’s also worth considering that WR3 might not be a wide receiver at all. Donovan Edwards is arguably Michigan’s best receiver and while injuries limited his presence in the passing game, with Blake Corum returning, Edwards could make his biggest impact if he catches the ball. I would expect Edwards to see more slot snaps this season. The same goes for the tight end of Colston Loveland. Loveland is a former receiver who grew to a tight end. 31.8% of his snaps came from the slot in 2022. With his ability to expand the field and win in the seam, he’ll be a weapon on the inside, too.
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