Will the Maple Leafs business their first-rounder or Matthew Knies? Kyle Dubas trade in clues

TORONTO — Kyle Dubas oversaw the Maple Leafs draft 5 instances as basic supervisor. The Leafs have first-round selections on simply two of the ones events — 2018 and 2020.

In 2019, they despatched a primary to the LA Kings as a part of a bundle for Jake Muzzin. They passed out selections in 2020 and 2022 to do away with malicious contracts (Patrick Marleau, Petr Mrazek). They might nearest get that first around of 2020 again after they business Kasperi Kapanen.

And in 2021, with the street to the Stanley Cup Ultimate taking a look sunlit (oh Canada!), the Dubas Leafs passed out a primary pick out for a participant on the business time limit – and a apartment participant on the business time limit. Nick Foligno.

And now ?

Are the first-round selections at the desk ahead of the March 3 business time limit? Is Matthew Knies the Leafs’ primary chance? It is dependent, says Dubas.

“I think in every business discussion we have, we’re at the part where we’re at as a franchise where you can’t necessarily say no to anything right off the bat,” Dubas defined in a put up. -All -Celebrity crack assembly with the media on Thursday afternoon. “Having said that, there are players and draft capital that we have that are extremely valuable and that we would be hard pressed to live without. Not just (Knies), but a whole bunch of prospects or young players on our roster.

“I think in terms of rentals,” he mentioned of the sale of the ones property, “I don’t see that happening. But in terms of the other options, I don’t think you say no to anything, but these are very important things for us, now and in the future.

In short, the Leafs are (very) unlikely to go the Foligno route again, but would consider moving a first pick, or even a prospect like Knies, for a player (or players) whose contract is up.

On the one hand, that seems reasonable.

The Leafs aren’t brimming with impact prospects, for one, and have already handed out picks in the next draft and the one after and the one after. Cheap young talent is essential for every team, but especially for teams as heavyweight as the Leafs.

There’s also this feeling that the Leafs view any hire, even the most star-studded of them, as unlikely to tip the scales enough in one direction in a sport as random as hockey.

The Florida Panthers dealt two first-round picks (among other upsides) to land Ben Chiarot and Claude Giroux before last year’s trade deadline and were quickly eliminated in the second round. Foligno, mind you, hasn’t scored a single goal in just 11 games as the Leaf, including four at less than full playoff strength.

And yet, for a team that is about to start, shouldn’t All be in play, especially if rivals like Tampa and Boston are likely ready to go?

Knies and first-round picks feel like separate discussions, especially when it comes to rentals.

Knies just turned 20 and is expected to become Leaf next season. He looks like the Leafs’ best prospect right now, a long-term top-six potential. It’s understandable that the Leafs want to hold him tight in trade conversations.

The first-round pick, on the other hand, feels like he should at least be on the table, even for a rental. Picking 2023 doesn’t help for three, four, and maybe even five years. Even longer for the first rounds of 2024 and 2025.

Why keep an asset that is SO far out of bounds?

Auston Matthews and William Nylander have just one year left on their respective contracts before their prices go up. John Tavares is 32 years old. TJ Brodie too. Mark Giordano is 39 and 40. Calle Järnkrok is 31 years old. Morgan Rielly is getting closer to 30.

Now is the time for the Leafs to try and end five decades of championship futility.

How many rentals are worth that price, the Leafs might well wonder? How much would Ryan O’Reilly, on an expiring deal, really boost his chances against Tampa in the first round? And Vladislav Gavrikov? Patrick Kane?

It’s a bit limited to see it that way.

No, on paper O’Reilly may not improve the Leafs’ chances that much. On the other hand, maybe he would. Maybe he scores a big goal at an important moment against the Bolts or further after. O’Reilly scored five goals in the last four games of the 2019 Stanley Cup Finals against Boston and eventually won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP. He’s a few years older now and not quite the same player, but maybe his contributions push the Leafs over the edge when it matters most.

Maybe it’s a key defensive draw that freezes a tight game. Maybe it’s about closing a talent on the other side when the chips are down.

Why cross out the possibility, not including a first-round pick (if that’s what it takes), just because he’s not signed for next season?

Ryan O’Reilly. (Matt Blewett / USA Today)

How many goals is Kane worth in a seven-game series? He’s almost a point-per-game player in the playoffs.

Why limit the market? First-round picks have become a little too valuable in the NHL. It’s out of control on that front in the NBA right now, but the contenders all seem to see it as an obligation to go out there and make choices when they have a shot at winning the title.

Foligno didn’t work (age and injuries were always a risk there), but the right player could.

What else do the Leafs have to trade that would be coveted if not a first-round pick? They’ve already handed out their second- and fourth-round picks in 2023. What value does Nick Robertson, ranked No. 2 in Scott Wheeler’s recent prospect rankings, have after another injury-plagued year? What about Fraser Minten, Roni Hirvonen and Topi Niemela? Would the Leafs be willing to move any of these guys?

To be clear, the Leafs seem to only struggle with the idea of ​​moving the very good stuff. for rentals. They could also trade for these guys with the intention of re-signing them if they really wanted to. Giordano (plus Colin Blackwell and salary retention) came at the cost of two seconds and a third last season. The Leafs signed him for two more seasons soon after.

Couldn’t they do something similar if they landed O’Reilly or Gavrikov on hire?

Dubas may have given a clue to the Leafs’ intentions when he noted that while the big names get a lot of the attention, “we have to look at people who can improve us overall and not just big names per se.”

Which possibly tells us that the Leafs might be extra strategic, extra centered. Which isn’t essentially a malicious factor.

That’s a part of how the Lightning continues to roll 12 months then 12 months.

For Nick Paul, the Bolts most effective paid a fourth-round pick out and Mathieu Joseph. Bolts basic supervisor Julien BriseBois parted techniques with a number of first-round (conditional) selections utmost season, in addition to two younger gamers, however landed Brandon Hagel for 3 $1.5 million playoffs on the ceiling. It’s controllable as RFA then that.

BriseBois additionally despatched a primary and a 3rd to Columbus for apartment participant David Savard and gained a cup, so there you exit.

Once more, why exclude anything else?

However perhaps rather of taking a look at Gavrikov, who might be dear, the Leafs want to his similarly notable spouse, Andrew Peeke, a 24-year-old proper shooter who makes lower than $800,000 this season and $2.75 million. bucks for the next 3 seasons. Possibly they’re aiming for Travis Konecny, signed two extra seasons at $5.5 million at the cap, rather of an growing old rent like Kane. This may well be the place a chance like Knies and/or one of the crucial first-round selections, and even somebody like Sandin, comes into the dialog.

We all know they a minimum of mentioned together with Knies within the trade in for Marc-Andre Fleury and Hagel.

Or perhaps in the event that they’re dealing for a participant whose promise is expiring, it’s somebody like Tyler Bertuzzi, who undoubtedly gained’t value a first-round pick out in a down 12 months.

Dubas properly attempted to chill the hype about Knies for this season.

“It’s very rare for a college player to leave and then jump right out and have a huge impact,” he mentioned. “So I want to temper (expectations) a bit. But also focus on him helping the University of Minnesota and then what he wants to do as a professional. He is obviously very physically gifted.

Dubas suggested the Leafs might be more inclined to seek internal help from the bottom of the attacking group. Alex Steeves is the latest recall to get a shot on the fourth line.

As for acquiring another Muzzin-like item, Dubas said, “I think you would still like to have it. I think you would always like to have someone like Muzz who is able to defend the best players on the other team, to defend really hard.

The Leafs general manager continued to rave about Brodie’s defensive impact and the play of the exiting group of defenders amid injuries to Muzzin and others. “So, would I like to have this item?” After all I might,” Dubas mentioned of a participant like Muzzin. “Do I think that our guys mobilized to fill it in committee? I do. I know that’s not really a direct answer that you might be hoping for. But these are complex situations and really not binary. I think I would always like to have that. It’s just a matter of ease of access and value to get it.

Defender or attacker? Maybe both, Dubas seemed to suggest.

“Before and in D,” he mentioned, “if there’s a way to improve the team and give us a better chance of succeeding, then we’ll do it.”

And ‘what cost?’ is the query, or a part of it anyway.

(Matthew Knies Lead Photograph: John Mersits/ Cal Recreation Media by way of AP Pictures)