At this point, it seems safe to assume he will enter. The questions at this point become: Is anyone else? And will Biden lock it down for the next year?
Biden’s candidacy presents a different dynamic from the GOP primary. Fewer Democrats want him to be their 2024 nominee than Republicans who say the same about Donald Trump. But Biden is also the incumbent, making it a tougher exercise to get into the campaign against him. Democrats are also simply better at being team players in the Trump era.
Right now, pretty much everyone says he wouldn’t. But it’s also the smart answer right now. What happens when 2024 approaches, no one else enters, and you’re still watching a primary in which only 37% want Biden to run? Politics abhors a vacuum. And it’s easy to see the Democrats worrying – they are good at it — to find out if they’re running their strongest candidate against not just Trump, but say, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
All of this to say that it’s not just about whether Biden enters and then whether others join him; it’s also about how the party feels throughout the year. It’s good to be united, but it’s better to make sure you’re united behind the right candidate before it’s too late.
That said, below is our bi-weekly ranking of the top 10 Democrats most likely to be the 2024 Democratic nominee. (You can find our latest here.) As usual, this takes into account both their likelihood to run and their potential strength if they do.
Others worth mentioning: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy, Senator Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Senator Cory Booker (NJ), former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, Rep. Ro Khanna (California), North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY), Senator Elizabeth Warren (Mass.), Governor of Maryland Wes Moore, Senator Mark Kelly ( Arizona), Senator Raphael G. Warnock (Ga.), Julian Castro
Few on this list seem to telegraph their presidential desires — at least in a race without Biden — as strongly as the governor of Illinois. His recent state of the state address had a decidedly nationalized feel, and he focused intensely on prosecuting the likes of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R). “It’s an ideological battle waged by the right, hiding behind a claim that it would protect our children – but whose real intention is to marginalize people and ideas they don’t like,” Pritzker said in this week’s speech. “It’s been done in the past, and it’s not just about stifling ideas.” (Previous ranking: 10)
There’s a new conventional wisdom forming that it’s not so much that Democrats have a weak bench — it’s just that the strong side is relatively new, as Politico’s Jonathan Martin writes. And perhaps Pennsylvania’s new governor is leading that class (which also includes Sens. Mark Kelly and Raphael G. Warnock and Maryland Governor Wes Moore). That doesn’t mean he can turn around and run for president just months after winning his first term – that would be very difficult – but it does mean it’s worth keeping a close eye on how he’s doing in Keystone State. (Previous ranking: 9)
The Vermont senator has kept his options open despite indicating at one point that the 2020 campaign was most likely his last run for president. But now he has a chair he surely coveted, on the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. This work will give Sanders great influence on issues close to his heart, especially health and work. For now, the 81-year-old is not committing to seeking re-election in 2024, and he suggests he is very focused on legislation. “The purpose of elections is to elect people to work, not to keep talking about elections,” he told The Times. (Previous ranking: 7)
Speaking of having a reason to focus on the Senate: The Minnesota senator not only has a 2024 re-election campaign, but just became the No. 4 Democratic Senate leader. That’s not necessarily the marker of someone who expects to run for president again, but maybe she assumes Biden will. Either way, a congressional leadership track would seem to suit Klobuchar. (Previous ranking: 5)
Whitmer said she wouldn’t run even if Biden didn’t, but there would surely be pressure after his big 2022 re-election win in that case. Not only did Michigan’s governor win two elections by about 10 points in a swing state, but Democrats took both houses of the state legislature for the first time in about 40 years. Of course, that means Whitmer really can do a few things now — which could make it difficult for anxious Democrats to persuade her to join the field. (Previous ranking: 8)
The California governor has embarked on a quest to make his party more aggressive. Not content to only go after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R), he has also in recent days attacked GOP policies and proposals in Arkansas, Missouri, Texas, Virginia and of course, Florida Again. “Democrats need to wake up. We are not on the attack”, Newsom says David Axelrod recently. “We’re sitting here playing defense, saying, ‘Maybe we are too awake. “”Newsom still claims he won’t run for president even if Biden doesn’t, but we’re among those who doubt he can resist. (Previous ranking: 6)
Perhaps the thing that strikes us most about the governor of Colorado is his concerted effort not to hand over some issues to Republicans. A good example came in his recent State of the State Address. “We want safe and accessible elections for every voter in our country, not just voters in Colorado,” he said. “And, of course, we need to secure our borders and fix our inhumane and broken immigration system.” Polis also offered an interesting response to the idea of Biden running again: “I will be enthusiastic if he is enthusiastic.” (Previous ranking: 4)
It’s usually not a good sign when the chatter shifts from your own presidential prospects to whether the president will even keep you on the ticket if he short. But Harris has now been repeatedly asked about that (thanks in part to a few difficult recent profiles, and perhaps Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren’s awkward response on the subject). It’s hard to see how Biden would ever change his running mate, so this really sounds like what Harris calls “chatter.” But there’s no doubt the sitting vice president doesn’t look as strong as Democrats would prefer if Biden doesn’t run. (Previous ranking: 3)
The transport secretary retains second place, but his day job has turned into a drudgery due to a series of crises – the most recent of which was a train derailment in eastern Palestine. What we do know is that Buttigieg apparently won’t run for the Senate; he dismissed the possibility after Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) announced his retirement to his adopted country. (Previous ranking: 2)
Despite his continued weakness on whether Democrats want him to run again — which is highly unusual — Biden must be feeling a bit better about the current situation, given the 2022 midterms results. The 2022 election has been good for Democrats, inflation is coming down, and it looks like Republicans will spend the next year engaged in an ugly nominating contest (Trump is already filing very ugly allegations about DeSantis, for example ). Another factor to keep in mind here: Democrats are trying to push South Carolina, Georgia and Michigan through the primary process, and all three are good states for Biden. This is no coincidence, and it must also color – at least a little – the calculation of anyone who might decide to run against him. (Previous ranking: 1)
Washington
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