Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is visiting four African countries this week in an attempt to strengthen ties with the continent. During his trip, Lavrov discussed the role of the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, in helping Mali fight jihadists. The Wagner Group is believed to have provided military support for the Malian government in its fight against the Islamist insurgency in the north of the country, though the Russian government denies direct involvement. Lavrov said that the Wagner Group was present in Mali, but only in an advisory capacity and that they were not taking part in the fighting. He also said that the Malian government was in full control of the situation and that the presence of the Wagner Group was not necessary. The visit is seen as part of Russia’s expanding influence in Africa, as well as its efforts to counter the presence of Western countries on the continent.
Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop (R) welcomed Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Bamako
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has pledged further military support to Mali, which has been fighting a jihadist uprising since 2012.
Mali turned its back on former colonial power France last year and instead favored Russian help.
This is the Foreign Secretary’s second visit to Africa in two weeks.
Russia is keen to shore up allies as the Ukraine war rages on, but its involvement in West Africa is older and has grown over time.
Mr Lavrov, who is on a two-day trip to Mali, outlined Moscow’s efforts to provide military support to governments across West Africa in their fight against Islamist militants.
Mali’s military government has rejected criticism of this shift to Russia.
“We will no longer justify our choice of partner. Russia is here at the request of Mali and is responding efficiently to our strategic needs,” Mali’s Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop said during a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart.
It has now been more than a year since Wagner Group fighters operated in Mali, although authorities have never officially confirmed this.
But evidence suggests they have been no more successful than other forces in dealing with the decades-old jihadist threat, and insecurity may have worsened.
According to the crisis mapping organization Acled Info, the number of civilian casualties as a result of violence has more than doubled in the past year.
Moscow adores
Yet Mali’s military junta has dismissed reports about the country’s deteriorating security situation as “fake news”.
Instead, it has hailed Moscow for strengthening Mali’s armed forces, having sent heavy military equipment to Bamako several times since the army seized power in August 2020.
These include Sukhoi fighter jets, as well as surveillance and attack helicopters.
Demonstrators in Mali last year showed their support for Russia and its President Vladimir Putin
“The military success we have achieved in the last two years surpasses anything that has been achieved in the past few decades. Our weapons are the pride of the entire nation,” Mali’s interim president, Colonel Assimi Goïta, said in a speech on Army Day last month. He said people have been able to return to their homes, but gave no specific examples.
But the presence of Russian mercenaries abruptly ended a decade of efforts by France and its European allies to support Mali’s attempts to counter the jihadists.
Wagner’s deployment was in response to dwindling patience with French forces, which initially made significant strides against militants when first deployed in 2013.
The capacity of the almost 18,000-strong UN peacekeeping mission (Minusma) to protect civilians is in danger of being weakened with the forthcoming withdrawal of almost 3,000 soldiers from Germany, Great Britain, the Ivory Coast and Benin.
Attacks by Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliates have over time spread to neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger, while militant activity has gradually shifted south toward the Gulf of Guinea.
Social Media Success
Emboldened by her work in Mali and her success in influencing public opinion, Wagner is making overtures to Burkina Faso — which saw two military coups in 2022 — and possibly Ivory Coast.
However, concerns have been raised about the way Wagner Group fighters are operating and the UN has called for investigations into possible war crimes by Malian soldiers and mercenaries, which the Malian authorities have consistently denied.
Human rights groups have documented reports of torture, summary executions and sexual assaults during joint counterinsurgency operations called Keletigui, which began in December 2021.
Analysis of Acled’s data shows that civilians died in greater numbers than militants in such operations in 2022.
Pie chart of death toll in Mali
At least 700 people have been killed in incidents involving the mercenaries, mainly in Mali’s troubled central regions.
One of the peak death tolls was recorded in March 2022, when at least 300 people were reportedly killed in weeks of counterinsurgency operations in the central city of Moura.
Survivors told Human Rights Watch that dozens of men were summarily executed by Malian soldiers and “white soldiers who speak a foreign language.”
The army denied this, instead speaking of how their armed forces had become stronger thanks to Russian trainers and military equipment.
The Wagner Group – which the US has claimed is on a $10m (£8.3m) a month deal – has not commented publicly on its operations in Mali.
Rather, the propaganda associated with the mercenaries has inflated their military capabilities, particularly in Mali, and has attempted to discredit France and the West.
This has been widely shared on social media, and the pro-Wagner messages are gaining public traction as they were shared by the Malian interest groups who have staged protests for increased cooperation with Moscow.
The founder of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has hailed the propaganda campaigns as “the new era of decolonization,” exploiting long-standing distrust of former colonial power France.
Forced into hiding
Individuals and organizations attempting to probe Russia’s influence and Wagner operations have come under attack, leading some to fear for their safety.
Last March, Mali banned broadcasts by French public media RFI and France 24 over their reports of alleged atrocities committed by Wagner and the Malian army. The government accused them of “sowing hatred and attributing an ethnic dimension to insecurity in Mali”.
Prominent activist Aminata Dicko was forced into hiding last week after pro-junta activists accused her of being unpatriotic for outlining alleged atrocities by the army and Wagner mercenaries as she addressed the UN Security Council.
Over the weekend, the junta later expelled Minusma’s human rights chief for allegedly working with Ms Dicko. Authorities have trumpeted military achievements, but the total number of deaths from violence has increased between 2021 – when there were 1,913 deaths – and 2022 when there were 4,803 deaths.
Bar chart of death toll in Mali
Last month, Mali’s Ministry of Health and Social Development announced that humanitarian needs increased by 17% compared to 2022 as militant violence sparked mass displacement.
In addition, increasing claims by Wagner and the Malian army of civilian casualties have provided ammunition for militant groups to retaliate and expand recruitment.
Graphic of death tolls in Mali by the army
About a third of 2022 propaganda statements by al Qaeda affiliate JNIM specifically named the Wagner group as a target or used its presence to justify attacks against the army.
His IS-affiliated rivals also said they killed 15 mercenaries and shot down a Wagner Group drone.
Despite these concerns, Russians and Wagner, aid to Mali appears to be continuing.
During his visit to Mali, Mr. Lavrov described how “Russian aviation equipment” was used to “conduct recently successful anti-terrorist operations.”
But perhaps more importantly, he has hinted that Russia could help others in the region deal with a similar jihadist threat, saying that “this is Guinea, Burkina Faso and Chad and the Sahel in general and even the coastal states.” in the Gulf of Guinea”.
Amid Russia’s international isolation after invading Ukraine, it’s a friendship that can only blossom.
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