Few State of the Union speeches have had less impact than this one

President Biden delivers his first State of the Union address before the joint session of Congress

President Biden delivers the State of the Union address in the chamber of the US Capitol on March 1, 2022 in Washington, DC. Credit – Win McNamee – Getty Images

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For much of the political world, the State of the Union address and its attendant spectacle — the applause, the hyperbolic replies, the over-the-top declarations of its importance — will be an unparalleled event, the political equivalent of the Super Bowl, the Oscars, or even a royal wedding. But the spin couldn’t be further from reality. For President Joe Biden on Tuesday night, the stakes for his speech are as low as expectations.

Harsh? You can bet on it’. TRUE? Even more.

For the first time in his presidency, Biden is standing before a divided Congress in which House Republicans seem determined to oppose the White House at every turn and Senate Democrats unwilling to endorse the rules of that chamber change to allow a simple majority to govern, always on the lookout for GOP staff. Meanwhile, Biden is close to announcing his re-election campaign — or maybe not — meaning every one of the two dozen or so potential Republicans chasing their party’s nomination will be cheering obstruction and sabotage from afar. Put simply, there’s not much reason to believe much of anything Biden proposes Tuesday may become law in this environment, especially as Republicans launch a slew of investigations into Biden in hopes of hurting his second-term hopes .

The White House is attempting to use the speech — arguably Biden’s biggest platform of the year — to offer Americans a stark contrast between two visions of government: one of steady leadership and one of tyranny by a fringe minority. House Republicans in particular had a rocky start to the 118th Congress. It took them five full voting days to elect Speaker Kevin McCarthy as their leader, and spent the first stretch in power taking steps to placate their base. Biden plans to say such extremism is as much of a threat at home as it is abroad, while offering an outstretched hand for any GOP support he can find.

This dual track evolves into the White House message moving into re-election mode. Biden made mainstream-over-extreme messaging a cornerstone of his successful 2020 bid, and outside advisers say he will do so for much of the 17-plus months leading up to Election Day 2024. With the continued influence of the likes of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene on the House agenda, Biden may find that the strategy is even better received this time around and can build on a field-tested message refined during the less-bad-than-expected 2022 cycle.

Still, Biden isn’t one to blast the doors out of any room with polished speech or high-flown rhetoric. The President is a badass, and Tuesday’s speech will be another part of his masterclass in governing through coming of age. He is expected to speak about China’s latest spy balloon gone awry and his order to shoot it down with a US missile. Biden is poised to tell lawmakers they simply have to raise the nation’s borrowing limit and that he will not negotiate this previously routine move. Advisors say Biden will also propose another assault weapons ban and police reforms, and those same advisors expect those ideas to go nowhere even after more mass shootings and police atrocities in recent weeks.

Washington’s expectations for the speech are fairly low, befitting a difficult White House environment. US support for Ukraine’s continued defense has fallen across all party lines, inflation is proving high and stubborn, and fears of a recession are rife. The Covid pandemic is still killing more than 400 people a day in the United States – four times the number in car accidents. With unemployment at a 53-year low, Biden’s potential crowing alone could cause him to appear to lose touch with a country whose credit card is maxed out with no plan to increase its credit limit, trips to the grocery store are unsurpassed expenses and interest rates rise.

Adding to that headwind from Republicans, he’s not exactly enjoying a huge push from his Democrats either. Just 37% of Democrats in an Associated Press poll said they wanted Biden to seek another term, compared with 52% who said the same before the November election, which beat expectations. Among all adults, just 22% say Biden should run again, up from 29% last year. The biggest concern of the doubters: the age of the 80-year-old Biden.

Regardless, those closest to Biden expect him to fully participate in the race in the coming weeks. As he chats with old friends and traditional allies on the phone, Biden sounds thoroughly like a candidate and seems to think he alone can deny Donald Trump’s return to power. But White House staffers cautiously say no decision has been made and that Biden is still turning to friends for advice. But as long as Biden publicly signals he will seek a second term, Democrats are stuck in a kind of holding pattern — unwilling to challenge their incumbent while ignoring issues with the broader brand. But the possibility of a second Biden term is also putting most Republican collaborations on hold, almost guaranteeing that the State of the Union will be something of a nap on Tuesday.

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