Analysis: Can Biden make his case for four more years?

WASHINGTON (AP) – This should be a high point of Joe Biden’s presidency. He has repeatedly beat the odds with a string of legislative gains and a historically strong midterm election that saw Democrats hold the line against Republicans. His unwavering support for Ukraine was praised. The cloud of the pandemic has cleared.

But instead he faces a problem in his State of the Union address on Tuesday night that has haunted him for years – public doubt.

Polls show that a majority of Americans are largely unaware of his accomplishments and disapprove of his job performance. Even Democrats are wondering if he should run for re-election given his age.

It all adds up to a particularly high-stakes moment for Biden. The speech is probably the last and best opportunity to argue why he deserves a second term before his formal campaign announcement, which is believed to be several weeks away.

“The State of the Union is often viewed as an opening bid for re-election,” said Patrick Gaspard, former White House policy director and top official on the Democratic National Committee. “And in this situation, it certainly is.”

Gaspard, who is currently president of the liberal Center for American Progress, said Biden has had a strong record since taking office and now needs to show he’s “a man with a vision for tomorrow.”

Biden’s allies insist the president is routinely underestimated, dating back to the 2020 Democratic primary. He also offers a stark contrast to Republicans, who his supporters say are committed to extremists within their party.

“They’re just not mature enough to sit at the table and govern,” said Cedric Richmond, a former senior White House official who is now a senior adviser to the Democratic National Committee.

American presidents almost never give up a second term. The last was Lyndon Johnson, who did not seek re-election in 1968 after his presidency was eroded by the Vietnam War.

But there has never been a president as old as Biden. He is 80 and would be 86 at the end of a second term. In 1988 he ran for the White House for the first time.

Lyndsay Chervinsky, a presidential historian, said Biden’s age is “the X factor” that sets him apart from his predecessors. Even when other presidents faced low approval ratings during their first term, “nobody suggested they not run.”

“If he were ten years younger, none of these conversations would happen,” she said.

Biden gave a glimpse of his campaign pitch Friday in Philadelphia while speaking at a meeting of the Democratic National Committee. He rattled off legislative gains, some made after they were declared dead in Congress, and berated Republicans as “extremists” and even once called them “insane.”

“Let me ask you a simple question. Are you with me?” he said to the cheering crowd, who chanted back, “Four more years!”

Political appearances rarely attract the same attention as the state of the nation. Last year, 38 million people tuned in, compared to nearly 100 million viewers for the Super Bowl.

Biden’s challenge will be finding the right way to capitalize on this fleeting focus, said presidential historian Michael Beschloss.

“The speech will probably be remembered for two or three lines,” he said. “He has to decide which ones they should be.”

Biden plans to travel to Wisconsin on Wednesday and Florida on Thursday to further advance his post-State of the Union agenda, which is part of an administration-wide plan for top officials to swarm across the country this week.

He has promised to announce a decision on his re-election earlier this year. Donald Trump, who continues to falsely claim he did not lose to Biden, announced back in November that he would seek another term. Trump is only four years younger than Biden.

After a historically strong performance by the Democrats in his first presidential term, Biden has successfully ended his party’s hand-wringing over whether he should seek another term. No primary enemy has appeared.

And he has a record to build on. He has also secured investment in infrastructure, computer chip manufacturing and financial incentives to encourage Americans to adopt cleaner technologies to combat climate change.

“At the end of the day, there is no denying the extraordinary achievements that President Biden has accomplished more than almost any modern president in the harshest of circumstances,” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in a Sunday interview with CNN’s State of the Union.

However, Biden continues to face skepticism from across the country.

Just 37 percent of Democrats say they want Biden to seek a second term, up from 52 percent before the November midterm elections, according to a new poll by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Victories in Congress On the contrary, many Americans don’t see him making any headway either.

According to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, 36% of Americans believe Biden has accomplished “a great deal” or “a lot” since taking office, while 62% said he has accomplished “not very much” or “little or nothing.” ” did.

Cedric Richmond, a former senior White House official who is now a senior adviser to the Democratic National Committee, says the numbers don’t worry him.

“When you start a campaign and spend the kind of money that campaigns cost now, people get inundated” with reminders of changes Biden made during his tenure, he said.

Right now, Richmond said, “people are more focused on their lives than they are on political commentary and polls and all of that stuff.”

The question now is whether Biden can use his big speech to get voters’ focus on him — and get them to see the country his way.

___

EDITOR: Chris Megerian reports on the White House for The Associated Press.

___

Follow AP’s coverage of the State of the Union address at: https://apnews.com/hub/state-of-the-union-address

Chris Megerian, The Associated Press

Source