3 Reasons to Consider a Big Game Sub-Bet for Super Bowl Betting

We’re less than a week away from the NFL crowning a new champion at Super Bowl LVII. Opening odds immediately surged towards the Philadelphia Eagles, positioning them as easy 1.5-point favorites. The odds have remained stable since that first move and it’s hard to see anything significant ahead of kick-off like reaching the key number 3. That may not be the case with the total, however, which has moved to 50.5, directly opposite the key number of 51.

As injury reports this week highlight the status of several Kansas City Chiefs players on both sides of the ball, the total could exceed 51 or move back to the opening number. Mecole Hardman’s dubious label makes him feel like an outsider. But positive news about fellow wideouts Kadarius Toney and Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster could give Mahomes some better weapons for Sunday. On defense, Kansas City could do without CB L’Jarius Sneed and LB Willie Gay against an offense Philadelphia, which has averaged 28.7 points per game this year.

Good news on offense and bad news on defense for Kansas City could push that number above 51. But conversely, the opposite could also push the number back below 50. So waiting for the final injury report might feel safer as it limits your chance of beating the closing number in the highest-causing game of the season. As tempting as it is to hit the 51 total, here are three reasons I decided to jump in this morning and take a sub-50.5 position.

Philadelphia Eagles defensive end Josh Sweat puts pressure on Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes during a game on Oct. 3, 2021. (Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Philly’s pass rush becomes a real problem for Kansas City

The Eagles’ pass rush chased the quarterbacks far better than any other team. Philadelphia finished the regular season with 70 sacks and continued its dominance into the postseason. The Eagles’ edge rushers broke through the Giants’ offensive line for five more sacks in the divisional round, knocking out both 49ers’ quarterbacks in the NFC Championship.

You can’t stop Patrick Mahomes, but a persistent pass rush is the best way to slow him down. In his first two Super Bowl appearances, Mahomes was impacted by pressure with mixed results. He rallied to beat the 49ers by 21 points in the fourth quarter but never stood a chance in the 31-9 loss to Tampa Bay. While the Chiefs’ inside offensive line is a strength, offensive tackles have been less reliable. RT Andrew Wylie ranks 67th as a pass blocker among tackles who have made at least 20% of snaps this season. Considering the Eagles have four pass rushers with double-digit sacks this season, I expect they’ll be able to exploit the weakest link on the Chiefs’ offensive line and limit some of the off-platform plays, the Mahomes make it so dangerous. Without time for long evolving plays, we’ll see a more efficient than explosive Chiefs offense.

Eagles will lean heavily on their fast attack

Nick Sirianni is smart enough to know that Philadelphia’s best chance of beating Mahomes is to have him on the field as little as possible. As you can Running the ball better than any other team in the last five years makes a big difference. The Chiefs’ defense, ranked in the top half of the league against the run, will put up enough resistance to force Philadelphia to methodically work their way down while chewing the clock. It’s a simple formula, and it’s hard to see that the Eagles don’t rely on their greatest strength, the offensive line, where everything is on the line.

Explosive games will not be as easy as they have been all season

It makes sense to want to smash the over when the NFL’s two most explosive offenses take the field in a perfect climate. However, defensive coordinators Jonathan Gannon and Steve Spagnuolo know exactly what they are dealing with and both defensive game plans need to start limiting explosive plays. It’s not far off considering it was a strength of every unit and part of both teams’ DNA this season.

Philadelphia ranks sixth in opposing explosive play rate, while Kansas City is just two spots below in eighth. Both the Eagles and Chiefs like to play two safeties and bet they can kill drives by forcing negative plays before opposing offenses can cross the field. It worked all season and I bet it will continue to work on Sunday. Attacks will get their points, but defenses will make them earn enough to keep them under the total.

Statistics provided by rbsdm, trumedia, pff.com

Source