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The Athletic: Evaluating the Impact of an 18-Team Best-of-Three Playoff System on MLS Cup Competitions

Major League Soccer is still in the process of finalizing its playoff system for the upcoming season. By message from The Athletics Sam Stejskal and Paul Tenorio, an 18-team playoff is the frontrunner for an adjusted playoff.

This new setup would feature a play-in game between the numbers 8 and 9 in each conference before the first opening round of the playoffs. This opening round would be a best-of-three series, with each team allowed to host at least one postseason game.

The following rounds would be a single-elimination KO tournament like the previous four seasons.

the athlete initially reported on a best-of-three style postseason in early January. The latest reports confirm this first report with the new information of the play-in round.

The MLS playoffs are always great. The added intensity of knockout football always brings out the best in every team in the league. The single-elimination era of the playoffs has resulted in many highly entertaining playoff games over the past four years.

Personally, however, I don’t think a single-elimination was the best way to go through the MLS playoffs. Football is a sport with high variability. In that way, it’s more like hockey than American football. This should be considered when creating an optimal playoff system.

The National Hockey League uses a seven-game series system that has made the Stanley Cup Playoffs equal parts fair and exciting. Fairness isn’t a big deal in sports — and playoffs are an inherently unfair way to determine a champion — but in sports with high variability, single-elimination playoffs can be extremely frustrating.

Since the introduction of the single-elimination playoffs in 2019, only three top seeds in either conference have made the conference finals. Only last season did a top seed make it into the MLS Cup finals – LAFC and the Philadelphia Union were the two best teams last season.

Aside from last year’s breakaway, the single-elimination model led to a lot of chaos. This is a double-edged sword. This unpredictability led to many super fun and memorable moments, but also meant many of the league’s best and most interesting teams were abandoned in the playoffs.

This new structure would be the best amalgamation of the old, two-legged playoff structure and the newer single-elimination model.

A multi-leg opening round allows for two things. 1) It will ensure more deserving teams make it to the final rounds of the postseason by eliminating single-game variability, and 2) there is more prep time for the playoffs.

I’ve mostly written about the fairness and competitive balance of multi-stage playoffs, but proper setup is just as important, if not more so.

The last playoffs flew by. With the single leg system, there are fewer games and suddenly it’s the MLS Cup final. Adding extra games in the opening round only gives the playoffs more runway and gives the fans (at least me) time to sink fully and move into the postseason action.

Maintaining single elimination in the final rounds of the playoffs is the best of both worlds because it still keeps the high-stakes, high-leverage action we’ve seen in recent years.

While a multi-leg system is something I love, I have mixed feelings about a 16/18 team playoff. In an 18-team model, 62% of the league would make the playoffs. The only other professional sports league with such a high percentage is the National Basketball Association.

The NBA playoffs added their own play-in system a few seasons ago, and if we include all play-in teams as playoff contenders, then 67% of the league will make the playoffs. If you only count all seven-game playoffs, that number drops to 53%.

This new MLS system would be very similar to the NBA. And that also means the same core problem of the NBA: making sense of the regular season.

The lack of value in the regular season has been a point of contention in MLS for years, and an extended playoff will only hasten those talks. With so many teams making the playoffs, there’s not much at stake in a 34-game regular season.

For what it’s worth, I personally find a lot of value in the regular season. It’s a way to qualify for the Concacaf Champions League and it can lead to a Supporters’ Shield. While many fans or organizations don’t particularly care about the Shield, I still personally think it’s a significant achievement.

The advent of the Leagues Cup should also raise the stakes throughout the season. Regular-season placement plays a part in seeding for the Leagues Cup, but more importantly, a mid-year break for a knockout tournament breaks the regular-season monotony.

The lack of regular seasonal assignments only becomes a problem around the middle of the year. The beginning of the year is all about exploring the team, figuring out how things work and establishing form. The end of the year is all about playoff seeding and positioning.

Mid-season is a stakes dead zone.

The addition of a mid-season tournament should hopefully add some mid-year fire and break up the long regular season.

We’ll see how the league decides, but there’s nothing wrong with mixing up the playoffs. There is no right or one way to determine a champion, and MLS is an excellent testing ground for new ideas and new playoff models.

Source: otowns11.com

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