Kansas State and FAU are good picks to win the NCAA tournament. Both teams have low-confidence odds to win, but they are good enough to win against full-strength teams. In the NIT, Utah Valley is a good pick to win, even though they are an understandable underdog against Colorado. They have a good chance of making it to the Final Four, and if they do, they are unlikely to be more than a three or four-point underdog. Michael McDowell is a valuable pick to win in the NASCAR Cup Series at Atlanta because he has won a Daytona 500 and is capable of winning this kind of race. In terms of SEO, the most important keywords in this article are Kansas State, FAU, NCAA Tournament, NIT, and Michael McDowell.
Today’s Best Bets: Sunday, March 19th
Sunday is a big day with a lot of action happening. Joe has been publishing picks for over two years now, and the results have been mixed with an average return on investment of -1% per pick when weighting by confidence. Use these picks at your own risk, and be responsible for any money you lose.
Betting Odds
The odds for these picks come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks, FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks, and ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Futures context: We’re down 2.1 units on these for college basketball, with one unit pending on Oregon to win the NIT (11-to-1) and one on Creighton to win the NCAAT (25-to-1).
Game Picks
Xavier vs. Pitt
Xavier is not firing on all cylinders, and while Pitt is not reliable, that works in both directions.
Pick: Pitt +5 (-107). Low confidence.
Marquette vs. Michigan State
We’re going to zig here against the zaggers. Tyler Kolek’s wrist is a concern, but we have to trust Marquette’s quality as a team.
Pick: Marquette -3 (-110). Low confidence.
Indiana vs. Miami
If the early games go as expected, we’ll be facing a Big Ten/ACC elimination game here. The Big Ten is better, and so is Indiana.
Pick: Indiana -1.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Gonzaga vs. TCU
This could be a great game, but TCU still looked out of sorts against Arizona State, and the Eddie Lampkin situation is a big distraction.
Pick: Gonzaga -4 (-110). Low confidence.
Liberty @ Wisconsin
Liberty is a better team, and it’s an early tip. We’re concerned that Wisconsin might not have a great crowd.
Pick: Liberty +3.5 (-107). Low confidence.
Sam Houston State @ North Texas
There will be defense everywhere, but this total is low, especially if the refs try to get control of the game early.
Pick: Over 116.5 (-110). Low confidence.
East Region
There are no picks for the East Region mentioned in this article.
NCAA, NIT, and NASCAR Betting Picks
Kansas State is not getting the respect they deserve, and they are every bit as good as Kentucky. Against full-strength teams like Tennessee or Marquette, they would only be a 4.5-point underdog. FAU, on the other hand, has a chance to be the best team in this region. They are ranked one slot ahead of K-State and Kentucky in KenPom and have played Conference USA for the last two and a half months. They have a good draw today, which makes them a good pick to win.
Pick: FAU to win +650. Low confidence.
Kansas State is another low-confidence pick to win, with odds of +900.
In the NCAA Tournament, Saint Mary’s is not likely to win the championship, but they are good enough to do so. UConn has a crowd advantage in Albany, which makes them an easy pick to make.
Pick: Saint Mary’s to win +4500. Low confidence.
In the NIT, Utah Valley is an understandable underdog tonight in Boulder, but the odds are preposterous. They play a KJ Simpson-less Colorado, and if they win that, they get a home game because of Cincinnati’s floor maintenance. They are not likely to be more than a three or four-point underdog in the Final Four.
Pick: Utah Valley to win +6500. Low confidence.
In the NASCAR Cup Series at Atlanta, Michael McDowell is a valuable pick to win because he has won a Daytona 500, and he can win this kind of race.
Pick: Michael McDowell to win +6600. Low confidence.
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