Uncertainty surrounds the Pacific Ocean conditions as scientists are unsure whether neutral conditions will pave the way for El Nino or be delayed further. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) will release the first forecast of the monsoon season in the second week of April. NOAA’s latest forecast declares the end of La Nina, with ocean conditions currently neutral and likely to continue through spring. The exact picture may not be clear until mid-April or May. The top five most important keywords are Pacific Ocean conditions, El Nino, La Nina, monsoon season, and NOAA.
Brace for Scorching Summer and Subpar Monsoon with the Return of El Nino
India is set to experience a harsh summer with soaring temperatures and intense heatwaves following the hottest February on record. Additionally, the country will have to brace for a subpar monsoon season as El Nino returns, a global ocean phenomenon that has shown a strong correlation with deficient rainfall in India historically.
El Nino is a natural part of the global climate system that causes unusually warm ocean temperatures. On the other hand, its counterpart, La Nina, leads to cooler temperatures and generally brings good southwest monsoon rains to India. However, after three consecutive years of La Nina, El Nino is ready to make a comeback, and scientists have already noted that the sea surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific Ocean are beginning to warm again.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted an increased probability of heatwaves in April and May, with record high temperatures expected. However, forecasters are still unsure if El Nino’s formation is on track, or if it will be delayed to late-summer. This uncertainty adds another layer of concern as the monsoon rains are likely to begin under the shadow of this dominating climate system.
It is worrying, especially for an agrarian economy like India, where agriculture contributes 15-18% to its GDP. Monsoon provides 70% of the annual rains in the country, and El Nino has triggered droughts and deficient rains in the past, causing losses for farmers. For instance, the El Nino event of 2015-16 sparked intense heatwaves and poor rains that left farmers counting losses.
Global warming intensifies extreme weather and causes unusual changes that are becoming harder to predict. The monsoon season is already behaving erratically, with more intra-seasonal variations every year. Despite above-normal rains last season, a large part of the rice-sowing region, including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal, was left parched. This unpredictability in weather patterns adds more uncertainty to the impact of El Nino on India’s monsoon season.
In conclusion, India needs to brace for a scorching summer and subpar monsoon season with the return of El Nino, a global ocean phenomenon that has historically shown a strong correlation with deficient rainfall in India. With global warming intensifying extreme weather and causing unpredictable changes, the impact of El Nino on India’s monsoon season adds more uncertainty to the already erratic weather patterns.
Uncertainty Surrounds Pacific Ocean Conditions
The US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared the end of La Nina in its latest forecast, with ocean conditions currently neutral, likely to continue through the spring. However, global scientists are still uncertain whether these neutral conditions will pave the way for El Nino during the summer or be delayed further.
The latest forecast by NOAA favors ENSO-neutral through the summer but raises the possibility of elevated chances of El Nino developing afterwards and persisting through winter. Scientists highlight that forecasts made during spring are generally less accurate, and the exact picture may not be clear until mid-April or May.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is also closely tracking the changes and will release the first forecast of the monsoon season in the second week of April. While we wait and watch how the situation unfolds over the coming weeks, uncertainty surrounds the Pacific Ocean conditions.
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