Nearly a year after Russia invaded Ukraine, new questions are being raised about China’s potential willingness to offer military aid to Moscow in an escalating conflict.
In an interview broadcast on Sunday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said US intelligence suggests China is considering supplying arms and ammunition to Russia, an involvement in the Kremlin’s war effort which, according to him, would be a “serious problem”.
China has refused to criticize Russia for its actions or even call it an invasion in deference to Moscow. At the same time, it insists that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations must be respected. The question now is whether China is willing to convert this rhetorical support into material support.
Here is an overview of China’s position on the conflict.
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DOES CHINA SUPPORT RUSSIA IN ITS WAR AGAINST UKRAINE?
China has tried to toe a thin – and often contradictory – line on the Russian invasion.
China says Russia was spurred into action by NATO’s westward expansion. Just weeks before the February 24, 2022 invasion, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing for the opening of the Winter Olympics, at which time the parties issued a joint statement. committing to a “limitless” friendship. . China has since ignored Western criticism and reaffirmed that commitment.
But China has yet to confirm the visit Putin said he expects from Xi this spring.
China is “trying to have it both ways,” Blinken said on NBC on Sunday. “In public they present themselves as a country fighting for peace in Ukraine, but in private, as I said, we have already seen in recent months the provision of non-lethal assistance that goes directly to aiding and abetting Russia’s war effort.”
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HAS CHINA PROVIDED MATERIAL SUPPORT TO RUSSIA?
So far, China’s support for Russia has been rhetorical and political, with Beijing helping to thwart efforts to condemn Moscow at the United Nations.
Blinken, speaking at a security conference in Munich, Germany, said the United States had long feared that China was supplying weapons to Russia and that “we have information that makes us fear that they plan to provide lethal support to Russia in the war against Ukraine”. .” It came a day after Blinken spoke with Wang Yi, the Chinese Communist Party’s top foreign policy official, in a meeting that showed few signs of a reduction in tensions or progress on the Ukrainian issue.
“It was important for me to share very clearly with Wang Yi that this would be a serious problem,” Blinken said, referring to potential military support for Russia.
US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield also expressed concern over any effort by the Chinese to arm Russia, saying “it would be a red line”.
Russian and Chinese forces have held joint military exercises since Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, most recently sending ships to participate in exercises with the South African Navy in a key shipping lane off the South African coasts.
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WHAT HAS CHINA SAID ABOUT THIS?
Following the meeting between Wang and Blinken, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement that it has always played a constructive role in the Ukrainian conflict by adhering to principles, encouraging peace and promoting talks.
The ministry said the China-Russia partnership “is built on the basis of non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third parties”, and that the United States was adding “fuel to the fire to take advantage of the opportunity to make profits.
Beijing says it has continued a normal trade relationship with Russia, including oil and gas purchases, as other countries like India have done. However, this trade is seen as an economic lifeline for Moscow, but there have been no documented cases of China directly aiding the Russian military like the cheap military drones that Iran sells in Moscow.
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WHAT COULD HAPPEN IF CHINA HELPS RUSSIA?
“To the best of our knowledge, they haven’t crossed that line yet,” Blinken told NBC on Sunday.
Blinken did not specify what steps the United States might take in response to Chinese military support for Russia, but efforts to put a floor under ties that have deteriorated to their lowest level in decades have gone as far as present been unsuccessful. The United States sought to limit Chinese access to the latest microprocessors and manufacturing equipment, and continued to contest Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea.
For China, the most sensitive issue is US support for Taiwan, the self-governing island democracy that Beijing sees as its own territory to be conquered by military force if deemed necessary. Taiwan is a major customer for US defensive weapons and has hosted a growing number of top US lawmakers, angering Beijing.
Meanwhile, members of the US Congress have called for a ban on TikTok and other Chinese-owned social media platforms, as well as increased sanctions against Chinese companies backed by the Communist Party, which wields a ultimate control over the Chinese economy and suppresses independent media and political opposition. voice.
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