Russia is likely to win a major victory at Bakhmut as the one-year anniversary of its invasion approaches, regardless of the reality on the ground, British intelligence sources say

A Ukrainian tank is seen in position on the frontline in Bakhmut, Donetsk region, February 12, 2023. Libkos/AP Photo

• Russia is under increasing political pressure to capture Bakhmut by February 24, British intelligence officials said.

• It is “probable” that Russia will claim victory there, regardless of the reality on the ground, it said.

• Analysts say Russia will struggle to capture Bakhmut by the first anniversary of the Ukraine war.

As the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine approaches, Russia is under increasing pressure to achieve a major victory, particularly the capture of the important city of Bakhmut. according to the British Ministry of Defence.

The ministry said in an intelligence update on Monday that no matter how the battle for the city goes, Russia intends to announce victory there by Feb. 24 or the country’s leadership faces the risk of rising domestic tensions.

“It is likely that Russia will claim that Bakhmut was captured to align with the anniversary, regardless of the reality on the ground,” the defense ministry said.

Bakhmut in the Donetsk region has been besieged and virtually ruined by Russian forces since the start of the war in Ukraine. Late last year, Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy said it had become “burnt ruins”.

Russian forces have been trying to encircle the city for months, but fierce Ukrainian resistance is holding them back.

Nonetheless, fierce fighting at Bakhmut has resulted in heavy casualties on both sides, with an American fighting alongside the Ukrainian army, telling ABC News that the average lifespan at the front there is “four hours.”

The British intelligence update added that Russia continues to pursue multiple offensive axes in eastern Ukraine, with the Bakhmut casualty toll reportedly remaining high.

Last week, a British Ministry of Defense intelligence update said that Russia had suffered its highest casualty rate since the war began. It attributed the surge in casualties to a lack of trained personnel, coordination and resources in both Vuhledar, also in the Donetsk region, and Bakhmut.

The think tank Institute for the Study of War said Thursday that Russia is unlikely to meet its first-year deadline because its armed forces “do not appear to be accelerating their rate of advance around Bakhmut.”

It added that one possible hope for Russian forces is that Ukraine might decide to voluntarily withdraw from the city, which could be the case if Ukrainian forces determine that the costs involved in capturing Bakhmut are too high .

On Sunday, Zelenskyy indicated that Ukraine is ready to weigh the importance of capturing the city. He said it was important that Ukraine defend Bakhmut “but not at any cost and not that everyone dies”.

But military analyst Oleksandr Kovaleno of Ukraine’s Information Resistance think tank told Reuters that “at this time there is no reason” for Ukraine to leave Bakhmut as it is not yet encircled.

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