Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks tips, predictions and odds tonight

The Blackhawks are arguably the worst team in the NHL, making them a significant underdog at home to a Maple Leafs team that played at Scotiabank Arena less than 24 hours ago. Our NHL expert picks predict the favorite will cruise.

Last Updated: Feb 19, 2023 2:51 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Central Division’s Chicago Blackhawks host the Atlantic Division’s Toronto Maple Leafs Sunday night. These two clubs last faced each other on Wednesday when Toronto clinched a 5-2 victory on home ice.

Will the Leafs get back to business or can the Hawks get their revenge on the home ice? Find out in our free NHL tips and predictions for the Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks on Sunday February 19th.

Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks best odds

Maple Leafs vs. Blackhawks tips and predictions

The Chicago Blackhawks’ tank for Connor Bedard continues to thrive as they have now lost 21 of their last 31 games. Of those 21 defeats, 19 were by at least two goals, a trend likely to continue in this clash.

Due to the structure of their roster and the extremely low effort recently, nothing should change for the Hawks at the end of the season. With a terrible blueline, Chicago ranks second to bottom in the league in expected goals conceded per 60 minutes (xGA/60) in 5-on-5.

Helping that leaky defense is goalie Petr Mrazek, who has been one of the worst goalies in the NHL this season. After 25 starts, Mrazek is 6-15-2 with a 0.885 save percentage (SV%) and 3.95 goals against average (GAA).

Better days are unlikely based on his underlying metrics as Mrazek ranks third from bottom among starting goalies when it comes to scoring above expectations goals per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) in 5v5. Combining his poor play with the terrible defense in front of him is a recipe for disaster, especially against the Toronto Maple Leafs powerhouse.

In his last nine games against the Leafs, Mrazek is 1-7 with .893 SV% and 3.37 GAA. On the other side of the ice, goaltender Ilya Samsonov is assigned to guard the cage for Toronto.

Through 27 appearances in the crease this season, Samsonov is 19-6-2 with a .918 SV% and 2.31 GAA. He ranks fifth among starting goalies in GSAx/60 5v5.

Ahead of Samsonov is a strong two-way team that ranks in the top 8 in the league in both expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and xGA/60 in 5v5.

Assist the Leafs with better goalie, offense and defense to get back to business against Chicago.

my best bet: Maple leaves -1.5 (-120 at SIA)

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Maple Leafs vs. Blackhawks Moneyline Analysis

If you like Toronto in this matchup, then you should take the puck line at -120 instead of putting nearly three dollars on the money line. First off, -300 is just way too much juice to put aside in an NHL game.

Second, if you’re fading the Hawks, the more viable option is to also fade them on the puck line. As mentioned above, 19 of the last 21 defeats have been by a margin of at least two goals. They’re also a miserable 5-48 in their last 53 games against teams with a win percentage over .600.

Meanwhile, nine of the Leafs’ last 12 wins have come by at least two goals, including Saturday’s 5-1 win over the Montreal Canadiens.

Maple Leafs vs. Blackhawks Over/Under Analysis

Chicago is a difficult team to gauge in terms of totals handicap, as they are one of the few rosters in the league that struggle to both score goals and finish opposition attacks. It ranks in the bottom two in the league in both xGF/60 and xGA/60 in 5v5.

Their lack of scoring chances on offense would suggest taking on the Under, but their uninspired defense and lackluster goalkeeping can also allow teams to score six goals alone.

On the other hand, Toronto are strong offensively, defensively and at the net, which makes the team a better game than the whole.

If you have to play the total game, consider that the over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two Original Six franchises and 38-18-3 in the last 59 Maple Leafs away games.