Buenos Aires is among the 50 cities that will suffer the most material damage from the climate crisis

“It’s the economy, stupid,” was one of the most used phrases during the presidential campaign that led Bill Clinton to the presidency of the United States. USA. At the end of the day, it is the productive engine and economic well-being or discomfort that ends up deciding the political future of democratic states. A new study about risks in the infrastructures that generates the climate crisis shows that most of the “locomotives” of the World economy could be in danger before 2050. The ranking includes the Buenos aires city and places it in the rank 40. The damages would be caused by the effects of the floods.

“The locomotives of the global economy are among the states and provinces most threatened by climate change and extreme weather events,” according to a new physical climate risk ranking of all the world’s states, provinces and territories released today by XDI (The Cross Dependency Initiative)a world leader in physical climate risk analysis.

The physical risk classification for the built environment was derived from eight threats of the climate change: river and surface flooding, coastal flooding, extreme heat, wildfires, land use (drought related), extreme wind, and freezing melt.

The system uses global climate models, combined with local weather and environmental data and engineering archetypes, to calculate the likely damage to the built environment, based on the scenario, with mean global warming of more than 3ºC above pre-industrial temperatures by the end of century.

The results show that the globally significant states and provinces of China and the United States will be hardest hit, along with major cities and centers of economic activity around the world. “We publish this analysis in response to investor demand for data on sub-sovereign and regional risk,” said Rohan Hamden, CEO of XDI.

“This is the first time that there has been an analysis of physical climate risk focused exclusively on the built environment, comparing every state, province and territory in the world. As large infrastructure built often coincides with high levels of economic activity and capital value, it is imperative that the physical risk of climate change is properly understood and valued,” he added.

The ranking released to the media focuses on a comparison of the total likely amount of physical damage to buildings—called aggregate damage—in each state, province, and territory in 2050. The 2050 physical climate risk comparison by XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk revealed the following:

-Two of China’s largest subnational economies – Jiangsu and Shandong – top the global ranking, in first and second place. More than half of the provinces in the world’s top 50 are in China.

-After China, the United States has the largest number of high-risk states, with 18 in the top 100. Florida is the highest ranked US state, followed by California and Texas.

-Together, China, India and the US account for more than half of the states and provinces in the top 100.

-Other economic centers of great development and global relevance that appear among the first 100 are Buenos Aires, São Paulo, Jakarta, Beijing, Hồ Chí Minh City, Taiwan and Bombay.

The Buenos aires city It appears in position 40, among the 100 most affected cities. The greatest threat, according to this study, is the floods. “As extreme weather conditions become more frequent, Buenos Aires faces risks that threaten the city’s vulnerable populations, such as heat waves, river floods, coastal flooding, and vector-borne diseases,” the report warned. which was carried out in 2018.

“Floods are a serious cause for concern. Buenos Aires is flanked by two rivers, the Río de la Plata to the east and the Río Matanza-Riachuelo to the south. The city is also crossed by 11 hydrographic basins. In addition, rainfall has increased by 32% since 1960, exacerbating the threat of flooding. To make matters worse, a local weather phenomenon known as the Sudestada, brings heavy rain, high seas, and coastal flooding between July and October. And although the city cannot prevent the wind from blowing, it can take measures to mitigate the risks to citizens, ”added that analysis.

Last year a simulation study carried out by Climate Central, in which you can see which would be the areas most affected by flooding in CABA and in the coastal areas, with a scenario of 4ºC average temperature rise. It can be assumed, as the report maintains, that these floods will cause severe and expensive material damage.

Other cities in the country also appear in the analysis, such as: Santa Fein position 115; Cordovaat 145; chacoat 193; Santiago del Esteroat 236; currentsin 427; Between riversin 434; Formosain 493; Tucumanin 522 and jump in 544.

The financial cost of extreme weather and climate change is already being felt in many of the economies that top the XDI’s Gross Domestic Climate Risk ranking. In June 2022, extreme flooding in Guangdong, ranked fourth in the analysis, caused direct economic losses estimated at 7.5 billion yuan (more than $1 billion).

Hurricane Ian, which struck densely populated parts of Florida in late September 2022, caused an estimated $67 billion in insured loss. Forecasts suggest that extreme weather events in regions like these will intensify in the coming years. Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong, is estimated to be “the world’s most economically vulnerable city” to rising sea levels by 2050.

“The XDI Gross National Weather Risk Score results underscore the importance of valuing physical weather risk in financial markets, including bond markets, given the amount of capital investment represented by assets at risk in the identified provinces. , the vulnerability of global supply chains and the need for climate resilience to inform investment,” Hamden said.

“It is crucial that companies, governments and investors understand the financial and economic implications of physical climate risk and weigh this risk in their decision-making before these costs skyrocket beyond financial tipping points,” he added.

After China, the United States has the highest number of high-risk states in the world in 2050, with 18 in the top 100 and 28 in the top 200. Three US states appear in the top 20: Florida (10th), California (19th) and Texas (20th).

Sea level rise is a threat to many states. According to the US Fourth National Climate Assessment, rates of sea level rise along the Mid-Atlantic coast were three to four times the global average rate. In the Midwest, the states with the highest risk of flooding and fire are those with increasing risk.

Since 1980, the United States has experienced 332 weather and climate variability-related catastrophes in which total damages reached or exceeded $1 billion, and the frequency of these events has increased in recent years. In the last five years, there has been an average of 17.8 of these events per year, compared to an annual average of 7.9 events between 1980 and 2022.

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