Biden wants Poland’s opinion – but he still has the power – POLITICO

MUNICH — NATO’s eastern flank has found its voice — but Joe Biden’s visit is a reminder that Western capitals still carry weight.

After Russia bombed Ukraine, the eastern members of the military alliance received praise for their prescient warnings (not to mention a few apologies). They earned respect by rapidly emptying their stockpiles of weapons for kyiv and increasing defense spending to new heights. Now they are leading the conversation on how to deal with Russia.

In short, Eastern countries suddenly have the ear of traditional Western powers – and they are trying to move the needle.

“We draw the red line, then we waste time, then we cross that red line,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said. said over the weekend at the Munich Security Conference, outlining a now-familiar cycle of debate among Ukraine’s partners as eastern capitals push others to move faster.

The region’s sudden importance will be on full display when US President Joe Biden visits Poland this week, where he will meet with leaders of the so-called Bucharest Nine – Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania , Poland , Romania and Slovakia.

The choice is both symbolic and practical. Washington is keen to show its eastern partners that it wants their contribution – and to remind Vladimir Putin of the consequences if the Kremlin chief extends his war into NATO territory.

Yet when it comes to the allies’ more contentious decisions, like what weapons to put where, Eastern leaders must ultimately defer to leaders like Biden — and his colleagues in Western powers like Germany. They are the ones with the greatest quantities of modern tanks, fighter jets and long-range missiles, after all.

“My job,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in Munich, “is to move the pendulum of the imagination of my partners in Western Europe.”

“Our region has gained relevance,” Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský added in an interview. But Western countries are still “much stronger” on the economic and military front, he added. “They are still the backbone.”

They are listening… now

When Latvian Defense Minister Ināra Mūrniece entered politics more than a decade ago, she recalled the skepticism that greeted her and like-minded countries when discussing Russia on the world stage.

“They didn’t understand us,” she said in an interview earlier this month. People saw the area as “aggravating the situation,” she added.

February 24, 2022 changed things. The images of Russia rolling in tanks and troops into Ukraine shocked many Westerners – and started changing mindsets. The Russian atrocities that occurred soon after in places like Bucha and Irpin were “another turning point”, Mūrniece said.

Now, the eastern flank plays a key role in defining the alliance’s narrative – and its understanding of Russia.

“Our voice is now louder and more heard,” Romanian Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu said.

The Bucharest Nine – an informal format that brings the region together for dialogue with the United States and sometimes other partners – is one of the vehicles that regional governments use to present their interests.

“He has become an authoritative voice in terms of assessing the security situation, in terms of assessing needs,” Aurescu said in an interview in Munich. NATO listens to the group for a simple reason, he noted: “The security threats come from this part of our neighborhood.”

The power passes… slowly

While the eastern flank has pushed its western partners to send once unthinkable weapons to Ukraine, the balance of power has not completely shifted. Far from there.

Washington officials retain the most influence over the Western alliance. Behind them, several Western European capitals take the lead.

“Without the Germans, things don’t move – without the Americans, things don’t move,” said a senior Western European diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity as they are not authorized to speak. publicly.

And at this stage of the war, as Ukraine pushes for donations of the most modern weapons – fighter jets, advanced tanks, longer-range missile systems – it is the largest economies and populations of the alliance which are at the center of the concerns.

“It’s very easy for me to say ‘Of course, give fighter jets’ – I don’t have any,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told reporters earlier this month.

“So it’s up to those countries to say who did it,” she said. “If I had, I would give – but I don’t.”

And even some Eastern countries that have jets do not want to move without their Western counterparts.

When asked if his country would supply Kiev with F-16 fighter jets, Morawiecki conceded to Munich, “we don’t have too many.” He did, however, say Poland could offer older jets – if the allies could form a coalition, that is.

Another challenge for proponents of a strong eastern voice within NATO is that the eastern flank itself is diverse.

Priorities vary even among like-minded countries depending on their geography. And, notably, there are outliers favorable to Russia.

Hungary, for example, does not provide any arms assistance to Ukraine and continues to maintain relations with the Kremlin. In fact, Budapest has become so isolated in Western political circles that no Hungarian government official attended the Munich Security Conference.

“I think the biggest problem in Hungary is the rhetoric of leadership, which sometimes really crosses the red line,” said Lipavský of the Czech Republic, who was careful to add that Budapest meets NATO obligations. participating in alliance defense efforts.

Just for now?

There are also questions about whether the Eastern moment in the limelight is a permanent fixture or a product of the moment. After all, China, not Russia, may attract Western attention in the future.

“It is obvious that their voice is getting louder, but it is also a consequence of the geopolitical situation in which we find ourselves,” said the top Western European diplomat. “I don’t know if it’s sustainable in the long term.”

A second senior diplomat from Western Europe, who also spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal alliance dynamics, said countries on the eastern flank sometimes take a tough tone “due to the fear of the pivot to China”.

When asked if the war had changed the balance of influence within the alliance, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna replied: “Yes and no”.

“We have to defend our territories, it’s as simple as that,” she told POLITICO in Munich. “To do this, we had to reinforce the eastern flank – Russia is on this part of the continent.”

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also reiterated that members of the Western alliance have a role in defending the eastern flank.

When asked if NATO’s center of gravity was shifting eastward, he told a panel in Munich that “what has shifted eastward is the presence of NATO”.

But, he added, “of course many of these troops come from the western part of the alliance – so it shows how united NATO is and how we support each other.”

And in Western Europe, there is a feeling that the East deserves attention at the moment.

“They might not have the full power,” said Western Europe’s second top diplomat. “But they deserve solidarity.”