WASHINGTON — Canada and the United States eye the sky with suspicion these days — as does the common continental defense system designed to watch it for them.
The North American Aerospace Defense Command, or Norad, lost track of the mysterious object that was eventually shot down over Lake Huron on Sunday, which some experts say is positive evidence the system is in need of an overhaul.
“That alone, I think, suggests a collection, ingestion, or analytical gap — or all three,” said Jamil Jaffer, executive director of the National Security Institute at George Mason University in Northern Virginia.
“Consequently, the modernization of Norad must come into play, as must the overall detection and identification capabilities of the US and Canadian collective defenses.”
Three different objects were blown out of the sky in as many days over the weekend, a spate of close encounters that followed what US officials described as a Chinese surveillance balloon hovering over the continent two weeks ago.
U.S. and Canadian salvage teams battle difficult terrain and harsh conditions to recover all the debris left in three different locations: the frozen Arctic Ocean, a remote stretch of the Yukon, and the depths of the Great Lakes.
Military officials believe the object shot down over Lake Huron was first spotted over southern Alberta Saturday before radar operators lost contact somewhere over Montana. They picked up a new signal as the object approached Wisconsin.
All the evidence points to a new challenge that neither country, individually or collectively, is adequately equipped to meet, Jaffer said.
“There’s no question for me that we need to develop new capabilities — and whether those capabilities are to deal with an old threat or a less modern threat or a more modern threat is hard to say,” he said.
“There’s no doubt that we really need to do a retrospective and find out what’s going on here. But our systems are – at least it seems – not geared towards balloons and possibly drones or whatever those other vehicles are.”
Canada and the US have spent years talking publicly and privately working to upgrade Norad, in what military commanders and lawmakers on both sides of the border have long recognized as a grossly outdated system.
It was Friday in DC that Secretary of Defense Anita Anand and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met in person at the Pentagon – the same day that US warplanes attacked an aircraft off the north coast of Alaska.
But neither Austin nor Anand has said much about how that effort is progressing, when it might be complete, or whether a more modern Norad would be better equipped to detect unmanned, slow-moving intruders at high altitude.
In a recent interview prior to the recent encounters, the commander of the Royal Canadian Air Force, Lt.-Gen. Eric Kenny forwarded questions to Norad about the suspected Chinese spy balloon.
However, he was able to bring some specificity to the plan to modernize Norad, pointing out that military officers on both sides of the border are quietly working on a number of fronts to modernize and improve the continent’s defenses.
The Canadian plan envisages two different types of long-range radar systems – one in southern Canada that can detect aerial threats from Greenland and northern Europe, and the other in the high Arctic to monitor the entire polar region.
The 1980s radar chain known as the North Warning System, the backbone of the current Norad system, is being upgraded, he added, while military satellites are planned for additional surveillance as well as Arctic communications.
“We’re doing our best to move them as soon as possible,” Kenny said. “In fact, I’m building a more robust team here at our headquarters to move these projects forward.”
However, the majority will likely not be operational for the satellites before the end of this decade and not before the mid-2030s.
Kenny said his top priority is the southern radar system, known as Arctic Over-the-Horizon Radar, but the Department of Defense says exact timelines and even a location have yet to be confirmed.
The object launched over the Yukon appeared to be a “small, metallic balloon” with a tethered payload that was venturing near “sensitive locations” in the US, CNN reported Monday, based on a Pentagon memo that attached Members of Congress was sent.
The same memo said the Lake Huron object sank “slowly” into the water after it was shot down, the report says.
A Canadian Coast Guard vessel was dispatched Monday to assist in the search for Lake Huron along with a drone team and RCMP investigators. Canadian Forces personnel are also involved in searches in the Yukon, where weather conditions and difficult terrain pose challenges.
The Royal Canadian Air Force deployed a CC-130H Hercules, two CC-138 Twin Otters, a CH-148 Cyclone and a CH-149 Cormorant to support efforts to clear the debris over a 3,000 square meter site. kilometers area.
“It’s unfortunately very rugged and mountainous terrain,” said Sean McGillis, executive director of federal policing strategic management at the RCMP, which is leading the two searches.
“The weather conditions are not great… There is a very high snow cover in the region. So our efforts will be difficult, they will be challenging, they will take time.”
This report from The Canadian Press was first published on February 14, 2023.
— With files from Lee Berthiaume in Ottawa.
James McCarten, The Canadian Press
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