Will Biden’s second state of the Union mark a less protectionist approach towards Canada?

WASHINGTON — Even in the age of American protectionism, a majority of Canadians still see the United States as their country’s closest ally, a new poll shows — but with President Joe Biden poised to deliver on his vision over the next two years, it seems them less sure that their powerful neighbor is a force for good in the world.

Almost 70 percent of respondents to the online poll conducted by Leger for the Association for Canadian Studies said they still see the US as Canada’s best friend, while 16 percent said they disagreed and 15 percent said they knew not.

However, respondents were far more divided on whether the US has a positive impact on international affairs: 41 percent disagreed, compared to 38 percent who said they believed it did. Twenty-one percent abstained.

Tuesday night, Biden will deliver his second State of the Union address since he was sworn in as president in 2021 — and many in Canada are hoping for a softer, more forgiving tone in the protectionist rhetoric that marked his first two years in the White House.

But since the speech is expected to serve as a kind of soft launch for the 2024 presidential race, they may be disappointed.

“The President will announce in the state that he is issuing proposed guidance to ensure building materials from copper and aluminum to fiber optic cable, lumber and drywall are made in America,” the White House said in a statement.

The so-called “Buy America” ​​laws, which have been on the books in the US for decades, focus primarily on iron and steel for federally funded projects – a “huge loophole” that the Biden administration is determined to close, “a for Anyway, materials… are made in America and support American jobs.”

The rules would extend beyond roads and bridges to buildings, water systems and high-speed internet, “providing businesses and state and local governments with consistency in applying the standards and a strong federal demand signal.”

A separate law, the Buy American Act, will soon require that 75 percent of components for projects procured by the federal government be made in the United States, up from the original 55 percent threshold.

With all eyes returning to the upcoming White House race, Biden’s protectionist rhetoric is likely aimed primarily at winning over a domestic political audience, and most observers agree that the US is targeting Beijing, not Canada have.

And with the country in turmoil over a weather balloon that Chinese officials said drifted through Canadian and US airspace last week and was shot down by US jet fighters over the weekend, the president has every reason to advocate economic decoupling from China .

But it would be a mistake to assume that the US will automatically turn to Canada for its energy, raw materials and manufactured goods, said Flavio Volpe, president of the Canadian Association of Auto Parts Manufacturers.

“Canada will do well not to assume we’re in the tent. We will have to prove and blame ourselves on many points that we take for granted,” said Volpe.

“Look for a transactional language to dominate our relationship rather than an ideology. Shared values ​​are important, but sharing values ​​is more important.”

The president has moved away from the “introspection” that characterized the first two years of his presidency, said Louise Blais, a retired Canadian envoy who now serves as senior adviser to the Business Council of Canada and diplomat-in-residence at Laval- University of Quebec.

“As of that year, actually, the narrative he uses when he addresses the issues surrounding economic security and supply chains has really changed,” Blais said.

“After two tough years … we’re now starting to see a different approach — at least rhetorically. He speaks about the importance of working with America’s continental allies.”

Recent polls suggest that Biden has not registered with ordinary Americans the success he has had in pulling the US economy out of the post-pandemic quagmire.

A new poll released Monday by ABC News and the Washington Post found that 62 percent of respondents believed Biden had accomplished “not very much” or “little or nothing” in the first half of his tenure, compared with 36 Percent who believe the opposite.

And that’s despite a slew of signature wins, including $1.2 trillion in infrastructure spending, the sweeping health, tax and climate change spending package known as the Inflation Reduction Act, and billions to build domestic manufacturing.

Fresh jobs numbers reported on Friday also painted a different picture, with the economy adding a remarkable 517,000 jobs in the last month alone, bringing the country’s unemployment rate down to just 3.4 percent.

Brian Deese, Biden’s outgoing director of the National Economic Council, acknowledged Monday that the full impact of the administration’s efforts has yet to be fully felt, in part because Biden is focused on building a fairer “bottom-up” and To create “middle-out” recovery.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was among those dispatched from the White House to sing the praises of Biden’s economic plan ahead of the President’s speech.

“We’re investing in America again … Factories are opening up across America, and not just on the coast, but across the country in areas that haven’t seen the investments they need,” Yellen said Monday during an appearance at ABC “Good Morning America.”

A US recession is unlikely, she said, given strong January jobs reports, the lowest unemployment rate in 53 years and inflation continuing to fall.

One of the only wild cards would be if Republicans on Capitol Hill, led by newly elected Speaker Kevin McCarthy, carry out an ongoing threat to default the US by refusing to raise the debt ceiling, she added.

“America has paid all of its bills on time since 1789, and failure to do so would result in economic and financial disaster,” Yellen said.

“It’s something that just can’t be negotiable, and while we’ve gone to the wire at times, Congress has always recognized its responsibility (and) must do it again.”

This report from The Canadian Press was first published on February 7, 2023.

James McCarten, The Canadian Press

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