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A look at the day ahead in the European and global markets by Wayne Cole.
Wall Street must hope that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak publicly any day. Given the opportunity to aggressively react to January’s record payroll report, Powell hesitated, opting to remain boringly balanced on the interest rate outlook.
When asked if he regretted using “disinflation” 11 times in his media conference last week, he said no, he would do the same again.
He reiterated that the “disinflation process” is underway but will likely take a “significant” time and if data continues to come in stronger than expected, the Fed will need to do more on rates.
Hardly earth-shattering stuff, but for the markets these days, if Powell isn’t utterly hawkish, he’s dovish. There is no middle ground. Wall Street duly rebounded while Treasury yields and the dollar fell somewhat with futures prices showing just two more gains to 5.0-5.25%.
Meanwhile, the yen had a good 24 hours, which some attributed to yesterday’s report of strong payrolls, a sea change for a market that has spent years ignoring Japanese data because nothing ever happened in it.
Total notional cash receipts grew 4.8% year-on-year in the most recent quarter, the fastest since January 1997, thanks to an outsized 7.6% increase in December bonuses.
Faster wage growth at spring job talks is seen as a key condition for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to scale back its massive monetary stimulus.
Demands by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for companies to raise wages do appear to have had some effect, with some big names recently promising big wage increases.
On Tuesday, video game maker Nintendo Co Ltd said it plans to raise workers’ base wages by 10% despite slashing its profit outlook. This was rewarded today as the market slumped its shares by 8%.
Key developments that could impact markets on Wednesday:
– The Fed’s Williams, Cook, Bostic, Barr, Kashkari and Waller are all speaking, with Waller and Williams likely to have the most weight in the markets
– Earnings from Uber and Walt Disney, which will be the first result when Iger is back on top
(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Sam Holmes)
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