Kari Lake edges closer to Arizona Senate bid

Lake is considering a June timeline to announce its plans, a person familiar with its thinking told the Post last week.

She enjoys the highest favor ratings among Republican primary voters of five potential GOP nominees, followed by former GOP Senate nominee Blake Masters, according to to a private poll, parts of which were obtained by The Washington Post, which is consulted by Republican strategists as an accurate snapshot of the mood of the GOP electorate. Both candidates were endorsed by former President Donald Trump in their previous bids.

Two other conservatives who failed to win Trump’s support in last year’s midterm elections – solar energy entrepreneur Jim Lamon and developer Karrin Taylor Robson – have fallen behind rivals. further to the right, according to the poll.

Lake’s popularity with Republican voters in the newly competitive state could jeopardize Republican efforts to overthrow a Senate seat held by Kyrsten Sinema, the former Democrat who became an independent in December. Lake’s continued denial of Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential win likely contributed to his defeat the support of moderate Republicans last year, ceding the governorship to a Democrat.

There are serious concerns about Lake’s viability in the general election, national Republican operatives said, given his recent statewide loss, continued attention to false allegations of voter fraud and its unfavorable ratings in a recent public general election poll conducted by polling firm OH Predictive Insights.

“Every time we throw out one of these races, it puts tremendous pressure on the other races on the map,” said Scott Jennings, GOP political consultant and former political aide to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. (R- Ky.). “You have direct empirical evidence that Arizonans would like a different choice.”

In 2022, several Senate and gubernatorial candidates more closely aligned with the Trump wing of the party, including Lake and Masters, lost their races, prompting national Republicans to pledge a tougher approach to intervene. in the GOP primaries in 2024 on behalf of the candidates. who appeal to the center.

Lake – who is still fighting a legal battle, which was thrown out by an Arizona appeals court on Thursday, to overturn his loss as governor – alienated the state’s moderate “McCain Republicans” during his run, with a video circulating of her telling fans of the late Republican Senator John McCain to “get the hell out of” an event.

But in Arizona, more moderate candidates like Taylor Robson still seem to have limited appeal to Republican primary voters. Republican National Senate Committee officials, including Executive Director Jason Thielman, met with Lake earlier this month at her request to discuss her potential run, a sign the group is taking her seriously as a candidate. NRSC officials met with Mark Lamb, the sheriff of Pinal County, south of Phoenix, who makes frequent appearances in conservative media, also in recent weeks, two people familiar with the meeting said. Lamb told The Post on Saturday that any potential announcement could come within weeks.

Lake ranks with most GOP voters in the state remains strong and could prevent other Republicans from entering the race if she succeeds. Some potential candidates are also waiting to see if the NRSC or the Senate Leadership Fund — a McConnell-associated PAC that spent nearly $300 million in 2022 — commits to intervening in a GOP primary, which could shake up the potential field. . But in a Fox News interview on Thursday, McConnell did not list Arizona among the four Senate races he called “extremely important” and where he is trying to recruit “eligible” candidates to run. A spokesperson for the Senate Leadership Fund declined to comment on the race.

Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont).

“Well, we have a lot of interested candidates in Arizona right now,” Daines said, when asked if Lake would be a good fit. “So it will be up to the people of Arizona to decide. It’s very early at this point.

The private poll conducted by Data Orbital, an Arizona-based conservative polling firm, shows Lake beating four other potential GOP candidates in head-to-head contests in a primary. But National Republicans fear voters will vote her down in a general election. If Sinema decides to run for reelection, it would be a three-way race, with Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona) already running as a Democrat — a scenario that would help Republicans. But Daines conceded it’s too early to tell whether Republicans will face a three-way or two-way general election in 2024.

Lake and his team are familiar with the private primary ballot, which has not previously been reported and circulates among potential candidates. Besides meeting with the NRSC, Lake is talking with consultants and some Republican senators about a potential race. Members of Trump’s team offered him encouragement, a person familiar with the discussions told The Post.

“Kari Lake isn’t going anywhere,” councilwoman Caroline Wren told the Post. “She is an unstoppable force within the Republican Party and will continue to champion America First policies in Arizona and across the country.”

Some private agents remain skeptical that Lake, who still publicly insists she won the gubernatorial race, will run for the Senate. She could serve as a surrogate for Trump’s presidential campaign and continue to build a national brand and fundraise for his PAC without running for the Senate. She recently appeared before packed crowds in her home state of Iowa, where she tested the national potency of her election denial message. She is also scheduled to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference, a forum for Republicans with national ambitions, in March.

But on Wednesday, Lake’s top aides mocked Taylor Robson, who spoke at a sparsely attended Republican rally, pitting the small crowd against the legions of fans who showed up to hear Lake speak. “There’s a chance these two will face off in *another* GOP Primary,” his aide Colton Duncan wrote on Twitter. “Where is your money? »

Pushing Taylor Robson, who lost to Lake in the 2020 gubernatorial primary by 5 percentage points, shows Lake’s concern about a possible rematch, a former Taylor Robson campaign aide said.

In the meantime, Masters continues to weigh a race, talking to potential donors.

Abe Hamadeh, who remains close to Lake and lost his race for attorney general in 2022 by less than 300 votes, is also considering entering the Senate race. He has met with national fundraisers in recent weeks, a person familiar with his activities said, and supporters recently formed a super PAC. Hamadeh is also co-hosting an upcoming fundraiser in Arizona for Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and speaking at CPAC.

Taylor Robson has kept the door open for a possible candidacy, telling the Post last month that the state deserves “much better representation” than what it gets from its two current senators.

“I am keeping my options open and deciding how best to serve the people of Arizona,” she said in a statement at the time.