Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands provide Ukraine with Leopard 1 tanks

Kyiv, Ukraine (AP) – Russian shelling damaged a hospital and apartment buildings in Ukraine, local officials said on Tuesday, while military analysts expressed skepticism about the potential impact of what Kyiv is describing as an imminent Moscow offensive around the anniversary of its invasion.

Shelling in the northeastern city of Vovchansk late Monday caused multiple fires, including at the two-story city hospital, the regional state emergency service said in an online statement.

Rescue workers evacuated eight civilians from the site before dousing the fire, which claimed no lives, authorities said.

Vovchansk is in the Kharkiv region, which was occupied by Russia after its all-out invasion began on February 24, and subsequently recaptured by Ukraine during a late summer counteroffensive.

The anticipated Russian push may be aimed at recapturing areas Moscow lost in this counter-offensive. Battlefield setbacks in Ukraine have embarrassed the Kremlin, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is keen to solidify public support for the war.

Ukrainian officials say they expect Russian forces to make a fresh push into eastern and southern Ukraine as the Kremlin seeks to secure territory it illegally annexed in late September and where it claims its rule is welcome.

However, some Western military analysts have been skeptical of Russia’s ability to launch a major new offensive in the coming weeks, particularly in time for the February 24 anniversary that could change the course of the war. Ukraine and Russia are both still training their new troops and stockpiling weapons.

Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands announced on Tuesday that they intend to provide Ukraine with at least 100 refurbished Leopard 1 main battle tanks. The pledge follows Germany, which agreed last month to allow deliveries of the more modern German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

In a joint statement, the defense ministers of Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands said the shipment of the older Leopard 1 tanks is part of efforts to “support Ukraine in its efforts to withstand Russian aggression”.

“(It) will greatly enhance Ukraine’s military potential for restoring its breached territorial integrity,” they said, adding that the delivery would be “within the coming months” and would include logistical support and training.

Russian forces are “regrouping” as they attempt to breach Ukrainian lines in five areas in the east and north-east of the country, the Ukrainian military reported on Tuesday.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said Moscow is focusing its efforts on the cities of Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka in eastern Donetsk province and Kupiansk in Kharkiv province.

In the Donetsk region, Russian forces also continued shelling Vuhledar, a mining town that has become one of Moscow’s top targets, Ukraine’s Presidential Office said. In the city, which had a population of 14,000 before the war, five residential buildings were destroyed, the office said.

Donetsk province has seen a significant influx of Russian troops in recent days, according to Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko.

“The transfer of Russian army units continues day and night. The (Russian) shelling is increasing, the pressure from the Russians is increasing every day,” Kyrylenko said on Ukrainian television.

Russia is also preparing for a major offensive in Luhansk province, just north of Donetsk, Governor Serhii Haidai said in a televised address.

The number of Russian attacks in the province rose “dramatically” on Monday and overnight, he said.

“The occupiers are looking for weak points and have brought a lot of equipment and thousands of soldiers to the front lines,” Haidai said.

About 60,000 households in Marhanets were left without water after Russian shelling near the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant cut power to a local pumping station, authorities said.

Mykola Lukaschuk, head of the Dnipropetrovsk regional council, accused Russian forces of firing heavy artillery and multiple rocket launchers at towns and villages near the power plant, Europe’s largest nuclear facility, overnight.

The UK Ministry of Defense said in an assessment on Tuesday that Russia “needs understaffed, inexperienced units to achieve unrealistic goals due to political and professional pressures”.

“Russian leaders are likely to continue to call for far-reaching progress,” she added. “It remains unlikely that Russia will be able to build up the forces needed to materially influence the outcome of the war in the coming weeks.”

Michael Kofman, an American military analyst and director of Russia studies at the CAN research organization in Arlington, Virginia, tweeted Monday that it was unclear how large an offensive by Russia could be.

He added: “But I suspect it might prove underwhelming as it’s mainly focused on Donbass.”

Michael Clarke, Visiting Professor of War Studies at King’s College London, said he would be “baffled, I mean really amazed, if (the Russians) are in any form of launching a strategic offensive on the 24th”.

He acknowledged that Moscow had increased its troop deployment in Ukraine and said Russia could also launch local offensives or larger airstrikes. But he recalled that Russian commanders were still aching from their failed attempt earlier in the war to capture Kyiv and overthrow the Ukrainian government.

He said: “Military planners in Russia will be aware that they have to get it right as they launch this new offensive.

“After the first (offensive) fiasco, it would be better to leave and go late than to go early and screw it up again,” Clarke told The Associated Press.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s parliament on Tuesday appointed national police chief Ihor Klymenko as the country’s new interior minister. Klymenko has been acting interior minister since the death of his predecessor Denys Monastyrskyi on January 18 in a helicopter crash on the outskirts of Kyiv.

The Ministry of the Interior controls the police and border troops, the National Guard and the emergency services.

The Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, also appointed Vasyl Malyuk to head Ukraine’s main security agency.

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Jill Lawless in London contributed to this report.

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Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine: https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

Susie Blann, The Associated Press

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