GDB 51.0: Oilers Scoring Depth Emerges (5:30 PM MT, SNW)

As of January 1, the Edmonton Oilers lead the NHL with 4.25 goals/game. They’ve outperformed teams overall at 51-35 and 5×5 at 35-22, and they’re doing so without having to rely heavily on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to lead the team offensively.

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The Oilers’ deep shooters contributed much more in 2023 than they have in the past, and at this rate the Oilers should be considered a legitimate contender for the Stanley Cup. Here’s a look at how the team produced and defended when McDavid and Draisaitl were on the ice together, when they were apart, and when neither was on the ice.

*OZF= pass in the offensive zone
NZF = face-off in neutral zone
DZF = Defense Zone Faceoff.
OISH% = On-Ice Shooting Percentage.

Without McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice, the Oilers beat their opponents 17-7. That’s a massive improvement from the first 38 games when they were topped 31-28. They can argue that their OISH% will drop from 11.49, but they haven’t given up many goals either. If you are a strong supporter of expected goals, your xGF% is 55.1%.

As I described in the game notes, McDavid is surprisingly 81st in the NHL with 5×5 assists this season and well below his usual pace. I don’t see that going any further, so he’ll be going onto a 5×5 heater soon, and even if the depth rating slows down a bit, the Oilers should still be an offensive force. The biggest positive is how few goals the Oilers concede on the ice without McDavid and Draisaitl. This is a key ingredient in creating a recipe for success.

There are some interesting nuggets to look at when discussing the Oilers’ recent game. Here are the 5×5 point totals for the forwards since January 1st.

Every forward has scored at least one goal in 2023, and Evander Kane (post wrist surgery) and Jesse Puljujarvi are the only forwards without a 1.5/60. Ryan McLeod has scored five goals in 12 games. Yes, his shooting percentage will go down, but the number of shots he produces is a huge benefit. Ditto for Warren Foegele, who has 19 in just nine games and limited minutes. He missed three escapees. If he buried even one of them, his total would look even better.

Kane has 16 shots in four games and I expect he’ll bury more chances as his timing and rhythm improve after missing 10 weeks. Draisaitl has never been a great shooter, but he only has 16 shots in 2023. He mentioned on the All-Star break that he feels like he didn’t have a great season. He says the points are nice but he feels he can improve his overall game. Another positive sign for the Oilers is that the bar is high for the best players. If Draisaitl isn’t happy with his game, chances are it will improve.

It’s also important to note that while some Deep Striker goals might slow down, I would argue goals from the blue line will increase. Tyson Barrie is the only defender to score in 2023. He had two in their last game against Chicago on Jan. 28.

Cody Ceci has not scored in 48 games. Evan Bouchard has a 28-game goalless streak, while Philip Broberg (24), Brett Kulak (23) and Darnell Nurse (13) also have double-digit droughts. However, the defenders have provided 22 assists in their last 12 games. They still add offense but I expect they’ll score a few more goals later. The biggest positive is that none of them have been surpassed 5×5.

Dave Manson has given Nurse (GF-GA of 13-9) and Ceci (10-10) the majority of the toughest matchups, then used Barrie (8-7) and Kulak (7-6) as second pairs and he has his three more protected minutes for young defenders that have given Broberg (14-5), Bouchard (13-5) and Desharnais (5-2) the opportunity to gain confidence and thrive against non-elite forwards.

The Oilers are 8-2-2 because their top scorers are still scoring, their deep players have increased their production, team defense has improved, and goaltenders have been solid. Every facet of their game is contributing at the moment and that should continue tonight in Detroit against a less qualified team.

Edmonton started the 2023 games very well. They beat their opponents 19-6 in the first third and 41-21 in the first 40 minutes. Detroit was outplayed 9-8 in the first frame and 27-21 in the first 40 minutes. The Oilers need to continue this trend.

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Holloway-McDavid-Hyman
Kane-Draisaitl-Ryan
Kostin-RNH-Janmark
Foegele-McLeod

Sister Ceci
Kulak Barrie
Broberg Bouchard
Desharnais

Campbell

The lines are a guess based on their last game against Chicago. However, they finished the game Kane-McDavid-Draisaitl and were a line in practice yesterday. If they are a line, we could see Holloway-McLeod-Hyman as one line tonight. With 11 forwards, combinations often change, with the exception of the Kostin-RNH-Janmark line. They have remained a trio for the past month.

Warren Foegele was able to retire as he left the ice in front of Jesse Puljujarvi. I think Foegele has been playing pretty well lately; he just didn’t bury his chances of escape. Mattias Janmark was in Detroit early to attend to some personal matters, but went skating today and looks like he’ll be playing.

Campbell was first off the ice this morning, so I’m assuming he’s going to start.

Red wings…

Bertuzzi Larkin Raymond
Rasmussen-Copp-Perron
Berggren Veleno Fabbri
Kubalik-Suter-Sundqvist

Walman Seider
Chiarot-Hronek
Maatta-Österle

Huso

Hronek will be a game decider but is expected to play.

The Red Wings attack group is not very dangerous. Together they have scored 119 goals and 289 points. The Oilers’ top four forwards (McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins) have 118 goals and 288 points.

MATCHDAY PREDICTION: The Oilers are within a point of Los Angeles with a 5-2 win.

OBVIOUS MATCHDAY PREDICTION: Hyman continues his winning streak with two more points.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS MATCHDAY PREDICTION: Nugent-Hopkins scores only his second career goal against Detroit. He has just three points in 21 career games against the Red Wings but has two tonight.

Source: oilersnation.com