Exploring the Implications of Joe Biden’s State of the Union Address for His Re-Election Prospects

The President will no doubt have to look ahead and make the case for what he hopes to achieve

Joe Biden’s State of the Union address before Congress on Tuesday comes at a pivotal time in his presidency.

By most indications, he is ready to announce a candidacy for re-election next year, and the speech provides a high-profile platform from which to make his case to the American people, the media and key figures within the Democratic Party.

Before the president can do that, however, he will be under intense pressure to address the problem that has hung over his administration since Friday. The Chinese spy balloon and the US response to it have dominated headlines, drawing the attention of the American public and prompting sharp Republican criticism of the Biden administration.

As the Republican-controlled House of Representatives considers holding a vote of disapproval on how the President handled the balloon incursion — no less than on the day of the speech — and holding aggressive hearings on the situation already planned, Mr. Biden is expected to he offers this rationale for his decision not to shoot down the ship until after it has transited the US.

And all eyes will be on how Congress reacts.

While Mr. Biden and his advisers may have strategized how to frame his reelection bid, a foreign crisis involving China, which could have significant economic and military ramifications, could derail even the best of plans.

His speech is likely to detail the achievements of the first two years of his presidency, when his party controlled both chambers of Congress and was able to pass a variety of substantive legislation.

Those achievements included a $1.9 trillion (£1.5 trillion) coronavirus relief package, which included a program to halve the US child poverty rate and $1 trillion in climate and health legislation. He is also sure to tout bipartisan legislative achievements in the areas of gun control, infrastructure spending and technology investment.

The President will argue that the economy is improving under his oversight, citing recent job growth figures and inflation and energy numbers, which have come down from high levels not seen since the early 1980s.

When he’s done patting himself on the back, however, Mr. Biden needs to look ahead and make the case for what he hopes to achieve for the remainder of his first term and what he might offer if he seeks four more years office afterwards.

It is widely believed that successful political campaigns are about the future, not the past.

In light of the recent spate of mass shootings, Mr. Biden could speak about new gun control laws, including the kind of bans on assault weapons he helped enact as a Senator in the 1990s. He may also call for a federal law to protect abortion rights, an issue that helped Democratic voters win in last year’s midterm elections.

State-sponsored child care and pre-school education are also long-awaited but achievable parts of the democratic agenda. And after the death of Tire Nichols at the hands of the Memphis police force, he could support renewed efforts for federal police reform.

Mr. Biden could also address issues of perceived weakness during his presidency, including rising crime rates in U.S. cities, the surge in undocumented migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border, and an attempt to forgive some student loan debt that faced multiple lawsuits.

While US-China relations are sure to dominate every foreign policy portion of Mr. Biden’s speech, he is also sure to discuss the need for continued American military aid to Ukraine and the implications of the tens of billions of dollars in aid already approved in reversing the Russian invasion .

Whatever Biden proposes on any of these issues will plunge headlong into the reality of Republican control of the House of Representatives. While the conservative margin in this chamber is small, it’s enough to ensure that none of Mr. Biden’s ideas get through without the tacit approval of Republicans, or even receive a positive or negative vote.

While there is always the possibility of a bipartisan agreement – and Mr. Biden will do his best to present himself as a voice of reason and cooperation – the coming year will be more focused on bitter struggles to avoid a US default on its national debt this summer and the passage of legislation that will fund the US government in the fall.

Mr. Biden could use his Tuesday night address as a vehicle to gain the upper hand in negotiations that are just beginning.

The president’s speech could provide a blueprint for how he will handle these tense confrontations with Republicans and address the growing rift between the US and China. It will also shed light on the terrain on which he intends to build his re-election campaign, including which issues he should prioritize and which achievements he should be trumpeting loudest.

While delivering a State of the Union address is always under scrutiny, the style of Mr. Biden’s speech will be almost as important as the content.

The 80-year-old politician is already the oldest president in US history. If he wins re-election, his second term will expire after he turns 86. Questions about Mr. Biden’s competence will be inevitable in the coming days, and high-profile speeches like this are an opportunity to silence critics — or give them more ammunition.

Though opinion polls are of limited value 21 months before an election, the latest figures show that if Mr. Biden takes the plunge, he will face a hard-fought campaign in which Republicans — including his former opponent Donald Trump — will be more than capable are trying to fight back the White House from his grip. His overall agreement has improved but is still net negative. Polls suggest Democrats would rather settle for a Biden campaign than spur it on.

Following his address, the President will travel to Wisconsin and Florida — states that are traditional battlegrounds for presidential elections and the latter is home to two potential Republican presidential opponents. Though 21 months may seem like a long time, and the timing of an official campaign announcement hasn’t even been hinted at, Tuesday night’s speech marks an important milestone on Mr. Biden’s path to re-election.

Source