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Ukraine Stalls Military Shake-Up as Attacks Loom on Kiev’s Borders

(Bloomberg) – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could postpone a government reshuffle replacing the defense chief as the government prepares for a Russian offensive. No decisions will be made this week, according to a parliament official.

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Russia’s budget deficit widened in January, driven by higher Russian spending and falling energy revenues as a result of a price cap imposed by Ukraine’s allies.

The Norwegian government proposed spending 75 billion kroner ($7.3 billion) to help Ukraine, spread over five years, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said.

(See RSAN on the Bloomberg Terminal for the Russian Sanctions Dashboard.)

Important Developments

  • Removal of Ukraine’s defense chief put on hold due to security risks

  • Latvia checks citizenship of Russian tycoon Aven under new law

  • Russia is sending more oil by sea, but the Kremlin’s war chest is under pressure

  • How does a final in Ukraine look like?: Topic of the week

  • This is how NATO should deal with Erdogan: Andreas Kluth

On the floor

Russia has carried out 12 airstrikes, five rocket attacks and 36 rocket attacks in the past 24 hours, Ukraine’s General Staff said on Facebook. Civilian facilities, including residential areas, were hit in the Kherson region. Ukrainian ground forces used engineered barriers and the natural landscape to stop a Russian offensive in Bakhmut, the media center of Ukraine’s military said, citing Oleksandr Syrskiy, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces.

(All times CET)

Russia builds $25 billion budget gap (4:45 p.m.)

Russia’s oil and gas tax revenues plummeted 46% in January as the price cap on oil exports imposed by the US and its allies over the Kremlin invasion of Ukraine was hit hard.

Combined with a 59% increase in wartime spending, the contraction pushed the deficit to 1.76 trillion rubles ($25 billion), the finance ministry said, the worst start to the year since at least 1998.

Russia’s Lavrov again in Africa (3 p.m.)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov returned to Africa for the second time in 10 days while focusing on the region amid the lack of international contacts since Ukraine’s invasion. Lavrov was set to begin a two-day visit to Mali after holding talks in OPEC member Iraq. According to media reports, he is also traveling to Sudan and Mauritania this week.

Russia’s Lavrov in Africa again to ease diplomatic isolation

Zelenskiy withdraws Italian Song Festival performance (2:30 p.m.)

The Ukrainian leader will not appear with a video message at Italy’s main song festival, which opens in Sanremo on Tuesday. Instead, he sends a letter which is read by the show’s host.

Zelenskyi’s planned speech had drawn fierce criticism in Italy — a country where media often portrays Russian propaganda as fact — including from Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, a longtime Putin admirer. Zelenskiy regularly speaks at popular cultural events, including music and film festivals, around the world to remind the public of the Russian invasion.

Italy’s divided loyalties are exposed by the war in Ukraine

Ukrainian Grain Flows Slowly as Russia Controls Slow-Walks (1:15 p.m.)

Ukrainian traders and authorities said Russia is deliberately slowing the pace of a landmark deal to reopen some Ukrainian ports for vital food exports by pushing the limits of an inspection mandate and limiting staff.

The agreement included a requirement for joint teams from Ukraine, Russia, the United Nations and Turkey to inspect each ship to prevent unauthorized cargo or passengers from entering and exiting. A Ukrainian ship inspector said he saw his Russian counterparts repeatedly slow his country’s grain flow with tedious checks that included checking fuel gauges and crew’s personal belongings. Moscow blames Ukrainian companies for the backlog.

Ukraine crop deal misses target as Russia slow-walks ship inspections

Deposition of Ukraine’s defense chief suspended over security risks (12:25 p.m.)

A day after a senior lawmaker in Zelenskyi’s party announced that Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov would be replaced by the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, a parliament official said no decisions on personnel changes would be made this week.

The delay was due to “risks to the whole system” ahead of a key meeting this week on arms supplies and military preparations, Mariana Bezuhla, the deputy chair of Ukraine’s parliament’s defense and intelligence committee, said in a statement on Facebook.

The back-and-forth raises uncertainty about the fate of Reznikov, who has been forced to defend his ministry against allegations that officials have been siphoning off funds from military food supplies. The minister and his staff have denied the allegations.

Norway proposes $7.3 billion in aid to Ukraine (12:05 p.m.)

The Norwegian government proposed spending 75 billion kroner ($7.3 billion) to help Ukraine, spread over five years, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said.

The program includes both civilian and military support, with funds to be used flexibly according to Ukraine’s needs, the prime minister said in a statement to Bloomberg. The next step is to seek “broad political agreement” in parliament, said the prime minister, who oversees a minority cabinet.

NATO Cannot Rule Out Russian Military Target, Says Estonia (11:15)

The Estonian Defense Ministry warned in a new paper that “Putin has not lost sight of the bigger goals” and that the notion that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a complete failure is a widespread “myth”.

In fact, the size of the territory Russia currently occupies in Ukraine is larger than 30 European countries, the report argued. “Russia has long-term enemy strategic goals and its imperialist war has strong support in Russian society,” the report said. “NATO cannot rule out becoming a military target for Russia.”

The invasion of Ukraine is not simply Putin’s war, according to the report, but Russia’s, as 71% of the Russian population supports the war.

Belarusians Should Prepare for Possible Airstrikes, Says Opposition Leader (8:50am)

The people of Belarus should draw up a plan to deal with a potential major threat of airstrikes, exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said in a statement on Telegram. Tsikhanouskaya advised residents of her home country to find places that can serve as bomb shelters, store food and medicine, and keep cash on hand.

She did not specify what prompted her to issue this warning. Russia used Belarusian territory as a launch pad for a full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine last year and has increased its air force presence there in recent months.

Zelenskyy wants to extend martial law for another 3 months (8:20 a.m.)

Zelenskyy asked the parliament to extend martial law for another 90 days from February 19, according to a draft decree on the parliament’s website. He also sought to extend the mobilization by 90 days, according to another draft decree on Parliament’s website.

Ukraine Sanctions Russian Nuclear Industry, Urges Other Countries to Follow (8:15am)

Zelenskyy signed a decree imposing sanctions on Russia’s nuclear industry, including state-owned Rosatom, and said the sanctions should back Ukraine’s calls for global containments on the sector.

“Russia is the only country in the world that allows its military to shell nuclear power plants and use nuclear power plants as a cover for shelling,” Zelenskyy said in his regular late-night address on Sunday. The sanctions, targeting 200 companies, include asset freezes and restrictions on trading operations.

Separately, Dmytro Orlov, the mayor of Enerhodar, a town near the Russian-held Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, said kidnappings of plant workers who refuse to sign contracts with Rosatom have become more frequent recently.

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